HODL or sell: What time is it?

^Source

Regardless of the current position of your crypto holdings, you are always caught in a dilemma. To sell or to keep holding on for dear life. Most times, the urge to sell gets more pressing and it gets so hard to keep on holding these assets. In gains or the other way around, there’s always a pressing urge to either cut losses or take gains while they still last. Having been caught in such situations, it is important to note that there is no definite answer to the question; ‘to HODL or to sell’ rather one question determines the decision to take; What time is it?

In a previous publication, I noted that;

The crypto space is a very dynamic zone with only little impossibilities and endless possibilities, especially when it comes to price movements. Several attempts at predicting price movement go wrong and for a cryptocurrency investor, ‘luck rules’. These price movements, on the other hand, trigger emotions from both long-term and short-term investors, while long-term investors seem to be more in control of their emotions when it comes to reactions to price movements, the fact remains that they feel an equal urge to react to it. Sometimes they win, other times, the situation prevails and they sell off (or a part) to prevent further losses or take already made profits.

The fact that things could go either way regardless of the current state of things ushers in a state of dilemma and makes decision-making in such situations tedious. However, taking cognizance of the existing trend and making empirical decisions increases one’s chances of coming out on top.

^{Making the right decision in cryptocurrency investments is always a puzzle. source}

It is always a dicey game, but that makes it even more interesting. But first, what could cause the current downtrend or uptrend? The value of your investments is ‘tanking’, well that’s quite unfortunate, but that might not be a bad omen. On the other hand, the charts looking green could be a calm before the storm. Whichever one it is, finding out what might have caused this price movement is an important move to make before dumping your stakes or holding on to your bags.

It might sound off, but sometimes the price losses are just meant to scare the weak as big money investors look to expand their dominance by scaring the weak to sell at lower prices. Price manipulation is not a new culture in the crypto space anyway. Gains could also be artificial and insider trading is also a thing.
It may be difficult to differentiate between organic and manipulative price movements, but the build-up to the uptrend or downtrend says much about the cause of the price action. Organic gains usually last for much longer and stay on a steady rise, sometimes caused by the project team announcing a breakthrough in their technology or marketing. But this is far from assured, things could still go either way, even when the trend looks organic.

^{Guess it's time to leave this ship! source}

The state of a project before the positive or negative price jerk is also an important factor to consider. For a solid project, price gains are normal and there is every chance of things going even higher with time. Price slumps could also be temporary for such projects as it takes only a short while for investors to buy the dip, knowing that this is not common for a quality project.
In contrast, gains may be manipulative for low-quality projects and a petty ‘bull trap’, thread with caution! Projects with poor tokenomics rarely get much attention, when the price of such projects starts to rise, much probability lies in deliberate pumps which are closely followed by intense dumps that sometimes blow off the gains from the pumps and continue to head towards more losses. Price slumps for such projects are normal and last longer relative to quality projects as most investors dive in for the ‘money grab’.

The outlook of the general market is also an important factor to consider. A token staying in greens while the market sees net losses could be a sign of even better things to come. Taking the risk and holding on to your investments and ignoring the current gains might turn out to be a ‘pro’ move. If it can stay on the gains while other markets falter, then there are even better days ahead, but this is not absolute. Nothing is absolute in the crypto space, but such projects stand some chances of continuing in greens when the general market starts to recover.

What time is it? What are the conditions surrounding the price gains or losses, you might like to take good note of them as planned decisions keep you at a greater chance of getting it right. Selling off without doing proper research might lead to post-sale regrets. Holding on and ignoring the current gains might not also go down well in the long run as price crashes may follow.