Facing the trough of disillusionment
“Men are only as good as their technical development allows them to be.”
George Orwell
You may be surprised to see a quote by George Orwell aligned with a positive article about an advancement in technology. However, even if Orwell viewed technology very much on the darker side: rather its misuse than its advantages, technological development is what dominates our lives today and it is what gives us that edge to function more efficiently and improve daily processes which do not work well. We are what our technological development allows.
Orwell’s preoccupation for the corruption and misuse of earth changing inventions is nonetheless important. The advancement of technology is, indeed, a clear definer of what we will become by the fact that it challenges and changes already well tested processes used by the masses, to replace them by the new thus catalysing a change in the way we think and in turn shaping how we behave. Perhaps a good example of the good and bad is that of the internet. Are we, for example, addicted to internet games, or hatching criminal plans on the darknet or has the internet brought us more accessibility to a wealth of knowledge, a more efficient way to do business and communicate and a way of improving financial transactions? While Orwell’s viewpoint of inevitable corruption is true, there will always be the negative and positive. Change is inevitable and it is clearly useful to our lives when the benefits over-ride the negative.
So why this grand prologue for an article about blockchain technology? Quite simply because blockchain is one of those earth-changing inventions and it is undergoing a need for reassurance that its benefits are positive as well as whether it will play an important role in the future. Suddenly it seems we need to be reassured that it will be a technology which we can rely on and which will propagate good permanent change. The answer to this is undoubtedly yes and you only need to look at the great improvements it has brought to those companies who have currently adopted it to answer their own particular industry needs.
Slowly but surely confidence is being re-installed. We are currently, however, still facing a market which has suddenly slowed down. Questions such as: fad or not fad? Corruptible or incorruptible system? Is one of the causes of a hiatus in enthusiasm and with it inevitably a slow down in the progression of ICOs such as Productivist. This slow-down indeed has been partly at the root of why many are changing their strategy to survive and become successful so adapting to the climate change.
The good news is that along with most companies who already use it, most experts remain confident of the good it will bring to the future. The international research company Gartner describes what we are facing today as the “trough of disillusionment”. We have seen the bad and the good of this technology, we have been impressed by its revolutionary possibilities and we are now facing a market which is taking a deep breath of reflection before continuing down the same path. Bad news for many ICO blockchain projects just now, but not insurmountable. The believers clearly outweigh the doubters. Proof of which would be Productivist’s recent poll to its investors to lengthen its ICO to October in order to accommodate this flagrant climate change. The result of this poll is thankfully for them, clearly in line with the experts. Only 32% of its investors were against such a move.
This hiatus, (backed as being just that by experts in the field, such as IDC, Gartner and IBM) is certainly but a moment in the history of blockchain technology. All of these experts believe (thankfully for promising ICOs such as Productivist), that this trend will not last. Gartner indeed predicts two phases to come whereby we will experience a rising slope of enlightenment as blockchain technology is increasingly adopted, followed by in 2026 a plateau of productivity. Their study shows that this progressive rising slope will be carried by those projects which innovate. We are, according to Gartner, coming to the end of irrational exuberance but on the cusp of a period of larger focused investments born out of the recognition of the huge benefits this technology brings. By 2030 we will have hit a period where it will be global and large scaled. By 2026 the business value added by blockchain will grow to slightly over $360 billion and then move to $3.1 trillion by 2030. It is therefore certainly not the moment to “shut up shop” and look to investing differently. For the manufacturing industry the potential is already taking off.
Reassuringly the IDC report (‘Market Glance: Blockchain’) echoes that of Gartner’s prediction; that being that the future of blockchain technology will be a steady evolution and not a revolution. They foresee that this year the financial market will lead the way in blockchain technology with $750 million and that the manufacturing industry will not be far behind at $448 million. For those companies who will be targeting the manufacturing industry, this is certainly the moment to sit tight as the room for growth is promising.
So it’s good news for those innovating projects like Productivist on the ICO market today because industry quite clearly needs blockchain technology. IBM recently pointed out that it is only this technology which will offer a real solution to their customers’ expectations as 63% put transactional transparency at the top of their list followed closely by quality, accuracy and increased transaction reliability. All of which blockchain offers a viable solution.
The arguments are all positive and given the positive response by companies who are already using blockchain technology, this technology is here to stay. Of course, it will undoubtedly be used for less savoury purposes proving once more the pessimism of George Orwell 1984 to be right. One thing, however, is certain: here the huge advantages that it brings to industries will very much outweigh anything negative and this is why it will continue to be more and more integral to industry — just as the internet has become over time integral to our communication. With already big names on board such as Amazon and Wallmart, they are satisfied by the benefits it has brought to them - Wallmart uses it to track their beef products across China. To them it is most definitely a positive earth shaker. It will certainly shape us and it will change our expectations of how we do future business catalysing progress and improvement across the business landscape. With this in mind, we could perhaps conclude that now is not the moment for Orwellian pessimism. Indeed, at this moment of “disillusion” we should not be doubting we should be setting our minds to invest in good ICO blockchain projects and continue to do so while the bearish market lasts.
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