Thoughts On Iran
I'm trying to utilize my one hour lunch to get some thoughts down on record. Today I have some quick thoughts on the events in the Persian Gulf between Iran, the US and its allies. The original alternative narrative of "false-flag" towards the attacks on tankers and other "Iranian provocations" seems to be running into another theory backed by a number of journalists on Iran that I trust. These sources state that it is possible (maybe probable) that Iran carried out the events.
Iran would have something to gain from these small actions. They can show the US (more importantly a president in Trump reluctant for war) that even minor push-back can have large economic and political effects.
One source even notes that President Trump contacted the Iranians after the shooting down of the US drone over Iranian airspace. He requested that Tehran allow him to bomb an area of Iran to "save face". Crazy, I know.
Elijah Magnier reported that Trump had asked Iran to allow him to strike back, but was rebuffed:
According to well-informed sources, Iran rejected a proposal by US intelligence – made via a third party – that Trump be allowed to bomb one, two or three clear objectives, to be chosen by Iran, so that both countries could appear to come out as winners and Trump could save face. Iran categorically rejected the offer and sent its reply: even an attack against an empty sandy beach in Iran would trigger a missile launch against US objectives in the Gulf.
An Iranian general yesterday confirmed Magnier's take (also here):
A senior Iranian general has revealed that Washington, through diplomatic channels, recently asked Tehran to allow it to conduct a small-scale operation in the Iranian airspace in order to save its face following the IRGC’s shoot-down of a US spy drone.
Brigadier General Gholam Reza Jalali, the Head of Iran’s Civil Defence Organization, said Iran vehemently rejected the US request, saying that it will respond to any act of aggression.
“The Islamic Republic of Iran responded that it views any operation as a war and will give a crushing response to it. You may initiate a war but this is Iran which will finish it,” he said Sunday.
An interesting take. Usually something I would ignore if not for the source. I expand on this in the video below.
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