I think you are correct in worrying about the solar minimum. Cold weather is survivable. However, it makes it very difficult for growing food at the rates that the world is accustomed to growing.

With this in mind, I would call your attention back to the beginning of your post in which you go over the commoditization of food. Price increases can also be seen as transport costs. For example, if one year Iowa goes completely underwater and is unable to produce corn, the price of corn would naturally go up due to the shortage. The only way to get corn from other places is to incentivize farmers from other states or other countries to bring it to where we need it. Otherwise, they could just as easily sell their commodity at home for the same price. Expensive corn is preferable to no corn when you are hungry.

We may see a preview of the effects of cooling. It is expected that there will be flooding in midwest states this year. In my part of Texas, we have had a much longer than usual cool season. Last year was relatively mild.

Another thing to keep in mind is that hurricanes gather and release energy from the ocean. We have had relatively quiet hurricane seasons, which is little consolation for Puerto Rico, mind you. Hopefully the solar minimum is more moderate than it has been at other times.