Theoretical Future About Countries With a Labor Shortage

I have been thinking about recently about the future and what it holds for the world and most of all, how the world will react to it. With crypto currencies, we see that there is a real possibility governments will have to think about how they operate governments and rethink the Keynesian way of doing things. In addition this rise of alternative currencies seems to be on par with another rise, autonomization. Simply put, job losses from machines and robotics are outpacing job growth that the industries bring. In my opinion this will only accelerate as time goes by.

Many companies in this digital age can hire a handful of people and maintain the ability to reach millions. An app startup in your basement can earn you billions of dollars while really only needing a small amount of coders to run. In the past if you wanted to reach millions of people with a product like corn, an entire army would be needed to grow that amount. For a while, the businesses that replaced and improved these industries grew more and better jobs, but im not so sure this is the case in the future. Once you get to the point where job growth in new industries fails to replace jobs in dying ones, where do you go?

One answer is universal basic income, which most of the smartest people in the world, think the United States will need some form of. Governments could protect the jobs being replaced that can literally not be outsourced (for example requiring a driver in a taxi), but more likely than not, they will look at other solutions. The truth is, these transitional years are going to be tough and more likely than not, we will see civil unrest. In a way this is supposed to be what a universal basic income is for. In a matter of thinking, it is a tax on the rich so they can live in a place where people arent burning their houses down at night.

How these countries will react to the problem of automation will be different, but recently I was thinking and had a bit of a “shower thought”, about the countries currently undergoing labor shortages. Mostly about the ones that refuse large scale immigration, like Japan for example. In the short term they lack applicants for jobs to the point where companies are shrinking, but there is a possibility that looking in the next twenty years, they will end up better off. When most of the jobs that can be done autonomously are phased out of the economy, their citizens will have many more opportunities in other fields. Specifically in a country like Japan which has a high need for elderly assistance or care taking jobs.

I dont know what will end up happening, but in my opinion, this might be the time we see many of the economies that have shrunk in the last decade, make a comeback. Smaller economies are easier to manage and can more easily adjust their workforce to address new needs. Having a small unemployment rate could mean the government can shift people around to other jobs, through incentives. I personally am curious to see how this ends up working out in the future. Your guess is as good as mine.

-Calaber24p