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RE: Yield Curve Inversion Pointing to Recession.

in #market5 years ago

@maneco64, thank you for the report/video!
By the way, I don't think that the global economy is heading towards recession in the next 2-3 years. The economic data is quite positive. Yes, EU is experiencing at the moment some slowdown of growth...but it is because of extremely high growth in 2017. Yes, UK is facing some difficulties, because of the Brexit ahead. So, it is a kind of uncertainty for the businesses. But, the Global economy is doing quite well.

About the yield curve inversion. I don't think we have yield curv inversion. There is some kind of, so called, flattening. It is because the risk premia have been falling down. It is because the Global economy has been doing quite well in the last 2-3 years. Yeah, the are many other factors, but those are the main ones.
About the yield curves flattening...analysts expected it 2-3 years ago, including myself.
About the US indices. This is the beginning of sideways movement, or call it a Range formation. I think the the indices will trade in a quite broad Range for the next 3-5 or 6 years. The upper bound will be at about 3000 for S&P500 (+- a few %). But I am still curious to see where the lower bound will be. So, I don't see any recession in the next 2-3 years.

Happy Steeming!

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