Probability of the masses

The same hair in a glass of water from the previous record has no evidentiary significance, but it certainly has a supernatural ability. For it is true that your people Israel learned to say with great fervor "mitochondrial diai," but mathematical calculations? Free Will? And with such confidence ??? I was a girl, too old, and I could only envy all the spinologists who managed to create such a passion for the written number. Trouble is, the flame can be aroused but knowledge-a little harder, it turns out. Therefore, this record will be devoted in greater detail to the vote on the failures. I hope that all this will help even a little bit of the so-called "AK" to return to a relatively normal life, as much as possible All the text here is copied from a series of comments I wrote in this "all truth" group, and hopefully I managed to reach those who are really looking for truth.

First, due diligence - I have no doubt that Roman Zadorov murdered Tair Rada. But, in this explanation, I will refer to the murder case as if we were dealing with Nava Elimelech (incidentally, Google on the subject will reveal to you that partial fingerprint matching has not resulted in an indictment ...). Chen Kugel (the one you are holding from him) actually tried to explain, on the day after the mess, that this is never a proof in itself, and then Spiegel started to stammer ("but I understood that it was only the mothers and grandmothers"), but apparently That Spine was done without reply.

The first thing I want to say, and it is directed (and, indeed, so much my explanation) to those who truly fear the thought that a cruel coincidence will lead an innocent person to life imprisonment. And do not make a mistake, it happens. Sometimes a person is sufficiently similar (or with a similar name and can be tied for other reasons) and misidentification. Rabak, even I gave wrong details after I was attacked in the park and made an innocent girl a month of anxiety. In fact, even in the Dakan case, there was a critical mistake in identifying - when the school psychologist identified the gardener as Zadorov (and they are certainly similar).
Woe to us if mitochondrial adjustment would tie a person to crime. With this adjustment, and even a 100% match, you can find my hair every day on children's clothing in Los Angeles even though I was there just before they were born. And why? Because in one kindergarten or another children learn that mitochondrial testing can not tell us apart, because their grandmother's grandmother is my mother's grandmother. And if I came here to Los Angeles, and without too much effort, think about what it means to be a Jew in the Jewish state.

Perhaps the most blatant failure is the assumption that her hair on the victim's clothes (which are not the only relevance, will soon settle for it) should be connected to the murderer. There were 59 hairs on the clothes of the late Tair (= parts of a hair that were seized by meds). It's not unique, it's probably what they'll find on you at the end of the day, of course if you're walking around in a place where there are a lot of people (like a large regional school like Nofei Golan ...). All the statements that are important to her hair come from the thought that this is a single hair, which shows that her very existence is important on the one hand, and on the other hand, that she is only one, and therefore "what are the chances that half the percentage of the population will appear?" Even if the probability was really half a percent (it will not, I will soon reach it) to match a single hair in a uniformly distributed arena, the probability of adjustment was less than 0.995 in the number of relevant hypotheses (and soon I will reach that). Nope it probably is not.

And now, about the statistics of dynasties that simply can not be performed. Attorney Yarom Halevi, Zadorov's attorney, asked to check out three very specific hairs, and he did not say that he was "intriguing", but in fact he was talking about three hairs that were not adapted to Zdorov. And this was the reason why he chose to examine them rather than others, and not only that - a match was also made for the lineage of the late Tair, and also for each other . Now, let us assume only for the example and illustration that one of the hypotheses comes from a very large lineage. Since two hairs in the examination can not be of the same lineage, then once one of the hairs is such, this greatly increases the chance of the lineage of the hair being spoken. I'm not saying it's necessarily the case, Yes? I just say that as soon as we know that all three different hypotheses that are different from those of Tair Zlorov and Zayrov, the sample is no longer a "half a percent chance." The sample space is different. There are dynasties in Israel, not what their frequencies are, and especially not the prevalence of those four dynasties that were rejected, and this information simply does not exist, so every attempt to calculate is doomed to failure.

And now, about the number of hypotheses relevant to the sample, and why it would necessarily be not only the hairs on her clothes but every part of her hair caught and no matter where in the arena in the broad sense. For those who went out to follow the vaccination argument and the parents who say that the child becomes autistic "after the vaccination" - then it's the same thing. Since neither HA nor AK seem supposed to be in school then every hair anywhere would have caused the same sensation exactly (in an analogy for a day or a month or six months after the vaccination). Therefore, the number of hypotheses relevant to the sample is more than those on Tair's clothes, which is all that Hanita Grant came from the school without the nucleus of the cell (since it was with a nucleus that was compared to AK and negated).

Two things about this guy - he learned the verdict well, and what you learned only after the spin of the Levite he knew about mitochondrial dainae much earlier. A control that can not help but exaggerate even if it will screw the entire program (you know, according to the police version, there should also be dental marks on the neck of Tair ...), but it also has a quantitative ability. He was an autodidact who, if not for all his problems, could have been a doctor or a mathematician.
The moment that not only a mitochondrial-compatible hair for AK is a sensation, but also one that is compatible with AH (see vaccinations again), once he claims that he is his partner in those days and adds to the fact that he wore his garment, he simply increases his chances of success In view of the fact that his maternal grandmother immigrated from Egypt and her maternal grandmother from Odessa, they are probably different dynasties). I would say that instead of my dress she wore a shirt that my father left for us a few days ago (six years ago, who remembers) to increase the chances even more, but no, with how talented he is not talented like me surprise

And the last issue I want to touch is, "Who was in the ring?" Piles of words spilled over three foreign shoe prints that the only thing you could say for sure was that you did not know. What's more, for a part of a person's hair to reach the scene after the murder, he does not really have to be physically there himself. It is enough that he comes into contact with a policeman on his way to the scene (and even indirectly through the wind). We already know that the police screwed up the closure. What else do we know? "If we believe AH that he really suspected AK in real time, what are the chances that he did not try to get to the arena, to get close to him," he said, Try to find out what was being done there, if only to dispel a faint, paranoid suspicion (and certainly not if he suspected more than a stick)?
It is known for sure that people who are normally not supposed to be in school, and certainly not in the girls' toilets on the second floor, were there. Fifteen of them were even identified when their shoes were compared to the prints in the ring (and some were found to be fitted, even to the wash tank in the adjacent toilet). Beyond that, do not know how many and do not know who. That's what happens when it's civilians who discover a murder scene and the police take an hour to close it. And no one will come and say, "Walla, there's a situation where my shoe prints are mine" or "Listen, guys, I do not like to ruin your celebration, but my grandmother is from Egypt."

In conclusion, in very very particular circumstances, mitochondrial diai can be * an aid to "something extra" needed to convict on the basis of confession or confessions. If he does not have anything and nothing in Katzrin, he lives in Be'er Sheva at all (Amaleh, but he will not have a hair on it), insists he was the one who committed the murder and provides details that the police do not know about (like a broken lock) Maybe a mitochondrial adjustment to it can have meaning to be the "just a little more" that will turn a "step from conviction" to "conviction." Mitochondrial dianay can not be used as evidence to support such false and contradictory evidence as AH and the "other witness." In such a situation, we may all find ourselves behind bars with no fault of his own.