Season 2018-2019 Week 2 Results | 9W-17L-4P | -3.120 Units Loss
This was the first losing week of the season and it won't be the last one. Results in betting can be a very tricky thing because the volume that need to be put in to actually say something is far bigger than most people realise. The last season I covered in a similar way can be seen as a good example. Despite crushing the market for +7.05% on 1000+ bets over the entire season, there was a -13 unit downswing at some point and a break even stretch of 300+ bets.
The best thing to do is look at one week at a time and see how things went and what can be improved without being overly attached to good or bad results. The pink line in the graph is the expected profit set around +3.5% ROI, this is mostly there to keep me with my feet on the ground when running hot.
I'm quite pleased overall with most bets I took this week. By far the best indication for pre-game bets to see if they are good or not are the closing lines. if you manage to beat those you will make profit over time, if they cursh you it is very likely you will lose over time. The 3 bigger pre-game bets I had were
Cercle vs Lokeren under 2.75 @ 2.01 (closed 1.90 odds) FT 3-2, I could argue that is was unlucky to see 2 very early goals in minute 4' and 7' which killed the bet, but I would not take it again. Cercle at home against the weaker teams will go for the full win making these kind of matches more likely to have goals.
Zulte Waregem 1H +0.25 / Zulte-Waregem +0.75 @ 1.92 (closed 1.85) FT 1-1 AA Gent came out with a lot of intensity which made them look far superior in the first minutes. This made me trade out half of my position at a profit which was a bit impulsive and I probably should not have done. Over the entire match Gent did look like lacking some creativity.
Genk -1 @ 2.01 (closed 1.55) FT 1-1 This was one of those matches where I had a bigger overall position and the huge drop in odds along with the match picture made this an excellent spot to be in. unfortunately the match somehow ended 1-1 after Genk completely dominated the match hitting the cross bar 4 times while stvv scored on their only chance in the 2nd half. It's one of those matches that frustrate the ones who have a shorter outcome dependant mindset and bring joy to those with a resulst oriented mindset so i don't mind so I take this loss with a smile on my face.
There were more situations that just where I missed out on some good profit and had no chance because of a random event. Club Brugge striker Wesley got a red card just after taking the over on that match with completely killed that bet. I also had a target over bet on the Anderlecht vs oostende match around minute 82' and was ready to take a big odds bet on that to see the 3-1 being scored just at that moment followed by 4-1 5-1 and 5-2. So the good ideas are there but I'm still missing some of that sharpness right now.
Week 02 Results 30 Bets | 09W-17L-04P | Staked 17.41u | -3.120u Loss..
Week 01 Results 31 Bets | 14W-14L-03P | Staked 20.19u | +0.150u Profit
Regular Season 2018-2019 Results
61 Bets| 23W-31L-07P|Staked 37.604u|-2.968u Loss|-7.90% ROI
@costanza I don't think that you are the only one who made a loss past weekend in the JPL.
We also had the red card of Brugge, which more or less killed my Club -1.5.
Genk did create 19 chances but only scored from a free kick! Standard only drawing at Waasland and so on!
But like you write betting is a marathon, not a sprint! Always keep the bigger picture in mind!
Cheers,
Peter