I didn't know there are bubbles in so many domains. But I've seen the signs in stocks and I'm pretty much out. The longer the upwards cycle, the harder the crash probably. It will be interesting to see if bitcoin (or other coin) will be seen as a safe heaven during the first global crash they'll encounter. That will be a test which, if passed, will probably help immensely with the crypto market adoption.
It probably was a good idea to lock in your gains already. We may have another year of road before they finally stop propping it up, but I can't imagine the Fed will be so irresponsible as to just go on doing it forever. And as soon as they stop, reality will begin setting in.
I also am very curious to see what happens with crypto. The reality it, old money is already holding a lot. And even though early tech adopters probably hold much more, they don't trade on exchanges where the spot price gets tracked. That means they don't set the prices no matter how much they exchange or what price they would insist on to sell.
The same people who have always manipulated markets, and who have kept precious metals artificially suppressed for years can do the same with crypto. They can particularly do it on centralized exchanges, because they are all trading derivatives and only settling when people withdraw their coins to private wallets. (If we all withdraw all our BTC of any exchange on the same day, the exchange would crash, because they couldn't cover all that BTC.)
This means crypto will rise if they decide that's where they WANT the money to go next. I'm not sure what to even want myself in the entire situation, as I have competing desires. Of course I want my holdings to go up in value, but I also care about the decentralized mission behind crypto in the first place, which isn't exactly served by just becoming another place the old guard can create and pop its bubbles.
Yeah, I agree we need to move toward decentralized exchanges as soon as possible to avoid this game probably all centralized exchanges are playing.
Do you think in the future fiat currencies will co-exist with crypto, or they will gradually (or abruptly) become obsolete?
I think there will always be fiat currencies, because governments will always create them. They may all become digital though. But maybe not. Who wants to be unable to pay for something simply because there is no electricity to power one's devices to? Paper money does have some use.
So, given various developments and trends of the future, you think there will be no "upgrade" to fiat currencies (other than a potential all digital perspective)? 50 years ago there were no digital money and US dollar was backed by gold. Change happens, even when government and banks are involved.
It happens, but generally in a way that benefits the ones in charge. If there is a radical transformation of governance, then of course the idea of money could change radically with it. But right now fiat (the idea that money is unlimited and backed by nothing but the police/military threat of the country issuing it) serves the powers that be quite well.
I think the thing we have to be more concerned about as we try to transition towards alternative forms of money that are digital like crypto is that the govt. might co-opt this idea and turn it into completely traceable money tied to our biometrics. There is already a thing called AML bitcoin that works that way, which thankfully is not catching on.
Say what you will about paper money, but at least a poor person with no legal identification can earn it and spend it without the government stopping them. And you and I can also have lots of private transactions with cash also. Even out in the middle of nowhere with no cell service, we can still buy water from a roadside stand or pay for gas. And if we criticize the government, we don't have to worry that we'll suddenly lose the ability to do all these things.
I see governments becoming more authoritarian lately, so the likelihood is that any new money would be more authoritarian.
Yes, unfortunately I agree. Governments will fight to keep and increase control, now that control may be slipping through their fingers, when people realize there can be more freedom and less bureaucracy. I also agree about paper money, I still use them, as well as digital.