What objectives, what effects?
War without bullets, is also inhuman and perverse. Medicines and medical supplies disappear; removes basic foods from the shelves and essential hygiene products, diverting them to the illegal market; generates immense and continuous tails; it causes hyperinflation and degrades to irritating extremes the purchasing power of the bolivar and therefore the salaries and other income of the humble people.
Background: Oil strike of 2002
During the business strike and oil sabotage of late 2002 and early 2003, the US government tried to overthrow Chavez by force, after failing the same way eight months earlier. Orchestrated the new coup plan based on a paralysis of the economy, backed by the transnationals, the great Venezuelan businessmen, and good part of the management of the state oil company. And again they participated full time almost all the private media, the counterrevolutionary parties and civilian entities, and the military coup - now outside the institution - defeated in April 2002.
The attack lasted two months and caused the GDP to contract 18%, between the years 2002-2003. There was a wide shortage of basic products, including gasoline, inflation doubled, as did unemployment and, in general, poverty. Capital flight also increased and the country risk index soared, with a serious impact on obtaining loans.
The so-called "oil strike" became a core test for the Bolivarian Revolution, which achieved victory based on a solid alliance between the civilian people and the military, under the leadership of Chávez.
Referendum against Chavez 2004
At the end of the day without success, the United States immediately bet on the electoral route , through the recall referendum against the President, possible to activate in August
- After creating such an adverse economic and social scenario for the Bolivarian process , the empire He proposed to crown his plan to overthrow Chavez through the ballot box and to them he dedicated his powerful resources. The imbalances that the coup plan caused in the economy and the serious impacts among the humble people, made the United States believe that the ideal scenario existed to defeat Chávez with votes. Why were they so sure?
In July 2003, according to reliable surveys , Chávez would have lost the RR. However, when it is done 13 months later, it wins with 60%.
How was it possible to defeat this new counterrevolutionary attempt, which ran from February 2003 until August 15, 2004?
It is worth remembering the reasons:
Strict exchange control in February 2003, put the businessmen on their knees. The government achieves a high firepower, having all the currencies and using them according to the priorities of the population's consumption and the economic development plan.
Regulation of prices to a wide list of foods and medicines, and of hygiene products.
Creation and meteoric deployment of social missions in health, education and food, and for promote jobs. All actions of great social impact, which benefit over a few months to more than 65% of the population.
Civic-military unit.
Accelerated reactivation of production and distribution channels.
Constant mobilization of the people, advances in their organization in the bases and in the conscience. The fundamental role of Chávez's leadership.
Radicalization of the Revolution, by adopting the anti-imperialist sign and bluntly confront the government of George W. Bush.
Since then (August 15, 2004) and until 2013, the Bolivarian Revolution achieves broad political hegemony and vast state power, in an advantageous regional context dominated by several leftist and progressive governments, and favored by large oil revenues.
The influence of President Chávez and the Bolivarian government in the processes of union and integration of Latin America and the Caribbean grows a lot.
For the first time in history, oil becomes a potential for solidarity instead of a weapon of pressure.
However, during that decade the empire maintains its objective and seeks to advance. It does not stop conspiring. Evaluate the causes of their defeats, increase financial aid and advice to NGOs and opposition parties. It examines and explores new subversive variants, among them prepares young opponents in the methods of "color revolutions".
And in 2007, when Chávez intends to carry out a profound reform of the Constitution, in order to accelerate and strengthen the Bolivarian socialist project, the United States does everything possible to avoid it and, without doubt, contributes to the defeat of the reform in the urns. In addition to other factors, Chávez loses the Referendum due to the effective counter-revolutionary ideological and political campaign, guided from Washington, and the sensitive programmed and induced shortage, which covered 25% of the essential products.
But Chávez takes lessons from the bitter experience and during 2008 he took up the initiative, which he never lost again.
New imperial onslaught
In June 2011, the news about the sudden illness of Chávez reactivates in Washington and its Venezuelan allies, and in many countries, the hope of destroying the Bolivarian Revolution in the short term.
The seriousness of his health is clear at the beginning of 2012, the year in which presidential elections are scheduled for October. Thus arises another possibility of defeating it through the electoral channel and, if it is not achieved, advance in an integral plan of destabilization and assault on power.
This time, the radical and interrelated economic and financial actions will occupy a central role from the first stage: a kind of gunner softening that must not stop until the adversary is defeated, with the use of a wide arsenal and numerous variants of attack .
Those who concentrate the ownership of capital, production and distribution, especially of the essential goods for life, can manipulate the markets, their prices and the quantities of the products. They possess very powerful weapons to overthrow governments.
And as shown by several examples of history, these economic and financial entities act in accordance with the political strategy decided in the centers of power of US imperialism. Thus they worked, for example, against the government of Salvador Allende and later against the Sandinista Revolution. And also against Cuba, although our people have shown that it is possible to resist and defeat even the most extreme and prolonged version of aggression.
It is no coincidence that the economic war against Venezuela begins months before the presidential elections of October 2012. And that it intensifies in an accelerated way, once the extreme severity of Chávez is notorious.
After he died in March 2013 and before the new presidential election in April of that year, they accelerated the pace. When Nicolás Maduro triumphed -by a minimal difference-, the United States accentuated its decision to deeply destabilize the entire economy and blame the socialist model of the Bolivarian Revolution for such a disaster.
The empire does not lose a minute, in order to take advantage of the anomalous conjuncture that is created in the Bolivarian field during 2012 and until March 5, 2013.
In mid-2012 the new plan begins to run. And in 2013, economic, political, media, conspiracy and diplomatic actions increase.
Bombardment of heavy artillery
The essential objective in the first stage is to fundamentally misalign the economic system. For this they manipulate imports, production, wholesale and retail distribution, and the value of the bolivar. This prevents the government from controlling inflation and other macroeconomic categories. Anything goes to destroy the economy and put the opponent on the defensive .
What is this economic war? What economic, political and conspiratorial actors participate in it?
What are your objectives?
What effects has it caused on the population?
What measures has the government been taking to counteract it?
Is it possible to defeat it? In what term?
The Venezuelan economist Pascualina Curcio , in his documented book "The visible hand of the market. Economic war in Venezuela "offers irrefutable data and arguments. Among the instruments used by economic warfare are:
1)The programmed shortage of essential goods.
- induced inflation.
- the boycott in the supply of basic necessities.
- the concealed commercial embargo.
- the international financial blockade.
Those who use these weapons do so in a hidden way, they do not show their faces.
They act supported by systematic communication campaigns, whose main line is to hold the Bolivarian government responsible for the disaster created, due to its specific decisions and, above all, to adopt an economic model alternative to capitalism.
The large transnational corporations participate in this unconventional war, in complicity with the national monopolies of food, medicines and hygiene items. The design and strategic direction fall to the centers of power in the United States, which also use the opposition political entities of Venezuela, allied governments and the local and international communications media. All act to cover up the actions of economic warfare, and confuse the people about the causes and responsible for it.
Economic war and imports.
I offer and comment immediately some information, contributed by Pascualina . The GDP of 2015, the year in which a scarcity level was registered above 30%, was 34% higher than that of the year 2004, when a scarcity level of 7% occurred, the lowest in twenty years.
The unemployment rate in 2015 reached 6%, 62.5 points lower than in 1999. This contradicts the massive closure of factories.
On the other hand, the figures of the imports deny that the supposed fall of these has provoked the shortage of supplies. Unlike. They increased 129% from 1999 to 2014.
And that year, in 2014, imports exceeded 31 billion dollars; almost double that, in 2004, when they totaled 16 billion dollars.
Food imports amounted to 7 700 million in 2014 and in 2004 were 2,100 million, or 259% higher. And in the case of medicines, in 2014, 2,400 million dollars were imported, while in 2004 they were only 608 million. An increase of 309%.
Therefore, lack of food, medicines, hygiene kits, spare parts for transport and other products, and long lines cannot be explained because the private sector has failed to receive sufficient amounts of money for imports. Since 2003, these currencies have been delivered by the State to private companies, at a preferential exchange rate, which is currently 10 bs per US $.
In 2004 - year in which there was no shortage - 15,750 million dollars were assigned to them and in 2013, when the essential items began to be scarce, the assigned amount doubled to 30,859 million.
Since the exchange control was established in 2003 and until 2016, private companies received 338 331 million dollars from the State for imports. There were years, like 2007 and 2008, when they were allocated about 40 billion dollars each.
In 2011, before starting the economic war, they were they awarded 4,445 million dollars for food alone. In 2012, when several products began to run short and queues emerged, the figure rose to 4 843 million. In 2013 it was 4 624 million. And in 2014 it reached4 173 million.
Why does the shortage occur?
The shortage cannot be explained by the increase in consumption either. For example, between 2003-2013 the trend line of consumption growth is 5.07%, while the sum of what is produced plus what is imported gives rise to a 5.99% upward trend. There are other causes of shortages.
One of them, argued in details by Pascualina Curcio, is the difference between the amount of money received for imports and the values of use imported, expressed in kilograms. This difference is key.
The variation in total imports of goods and services expressed in dollars was 388.9% when comparing the years 2003 and 2013. However, when measuring the total imports of goods and services, now expressed in kilograms, the variation in the same period was 57.6%.
That is, you import less goods and services with a larger amount of dollars allocated
The average import cost per kilogram in 2013 was 210% higher than in 2003. That year amounted to 0.83 dollar per kilogram and in 2013 it was 2.34 dollars per kilogram. Thus, a shortage factor is that, with a greater amount of foreign currency delivered by the State, fewer amounts of goods has been imported.
What did the entrepreneurs do with the dollars? Here is the answer: The currencies and deposits of the private sector abroad, rise 233% between 2003 and 2013. Of course, with the typical subterfuge of overbilling or other tricks, where in addition to corrupt external agents must have participated not a few times Venezuelan officials of the same species.
A second important factor of shortages is hoarding by large importers and producers of basic foods, medicines, parts and spare parts of transport, seeds, etc.
And the third factor is the contraband of extraction at the borders, especially towards Colombia.
Such imbalances provoke others, such as the so-called bachaquerismo , those subjects who acquire the products at subsidized prices and then resell them in the informal market several times more expensive.
Induced inflation, via internet
The most powerful and effective weapon of the economic war against Venezuela, is inflation induced via the internet for political purposes, by arbitrarily and illegally fixing the exchange rate against the dollar every day.
As of 2013, in Venezuela, price levels are not determined by aggregate demand and monetary liquidity, as in all countries. It does the arbitrary data that appears on the page "Dollar Today ".
Their harmful effects on prices (inflation) and therefore on the purchasing power of the majority of citizens, on the distortion of the markets and on the fall of production, form a diabolic beam.
Such exchange rates do not respond to any economic criteria. They obey a political intentionality, aimed at destabilizing thoroughly and without scruple the economy and society.
Let's see this data. The average annual variation of the parallel exchange rate from 1999 to 2011 was 26%. In 2012 compared to 2011 it grew to 31%. And in 2013 it shoots up compared to 2012: 224%. It rises to 475% in 2015 and at the moment the figure is higher than 600%.
Based on a mathematical model that considers the amount of monetary reserves and liquidity, Pascualina Curcio estimated that in March 2016 the real exchange rate should be 84 bs to acquire a dollar, while on that date the illegal rate of change induced by the Internet was 1212 bs.
She also made a graph showing the difference between the manipulated exchange rate and the estimated real exchange rate. In 2013 the manipulated is 1.5 times greater than the real, in 2014 it rises to 2.4 times, in 2015, it increases 7 times and in 2016 the parallel is 14, 5 times higher than the estimated real value.
Economic blockade?
The empire develops economic war against Venezuela simultaneously and growing in all scenarios, in order to destroy the pillars that support any economic system.
So far, the United States has not codified in its laws - as it has done with Cuba - this criminal fourth generation war, equivalent to an economic, commercial and financial blockade, with its specificities. They have acted in an overlapping manner, based on the various allies and instruments they have. One of them is the international financier.
Venezuela has suffered from a kind of financial blockade since 2013. It consists in making it increasingly difficult and costly for the Republic and especially PDVSA to have access to credit in the international market and to hinder financial operations of such a range. In this area too, weapons have been invisible: above all, they consist of publishing high figures of the country risk index and slowing down financial transactions.
Country risk, as is known, is an index that measures the guarantee of a State to meet its financial commitments. It establishes a risk premium associated with the probability of default in the payment of the external debt. If the country risk index is higher, the interests and conditions of the loan will be more severe.
All the country risk rating agencies are instruments of large private banks. Therefore it is not by chance that the economic war against Venezuela has included painting it red. And since 2015 it is indicated as the nation with the highest risk, with more than 2 thousand points.
It is striking that during the years 2009 to 2012 the index is low and stable and that it will shoot up as of February 2013. However, none of the factors that could determine such phenomenon is present: the payment of the debt has been punctual, with astronomical figures; in 2013 the price of oil has plummeted Aunno; nor does GDP decrease that year and international reserves were acceptable.
What are evident, as Pascualina shows, are the direct relationship between the illegal exchange rate, the inflation induced by this and the country risk. The reason is obvious: there are three categories manipulated for political purposes by the authors of the economic war. They impose the exchange rate, raise it to ever-increasing numbers and do the same, in a similar irrational proportion, with the level of country risk. The behavior of the three variables - illegal exchange rate, induced inflation and country risk - is closely related. Relating and is the result of the same plan of political destabilization.
Suggestions for the final analysis of the readers.
The economic war against Venezuela has managed to create an extremely complex scenario for the Bolivarian Revolution. It is a challenge of fundamental importance, which she can overcome and advance with strong signs that it is so in the shortest time. The entire society has been impacted and its effects have directly contributed to the decrease in the votes obtained by the Bolivarian candidates in the elections of October 2012, April 2013 and December 2015 (National Assembly), where a sensitive defeat occurred. It is proven with figures that in such conjunctures the inflation shot up and the basic supplies disappeared.
The ultimate goal of the counterrevolution is not to win the presidency and other public powers through voting. This is part of the destabilizing plan - to achieve whenever possible - but it is not the only thing: the goal is to extirpate the Bolivarian Revolution and Chavism. To achieve this, they pretend to believe that it is the cause of the deep imbalances caused by economic war.
Consequently, a main battlefront to try to defeat the Revolution is and will continue to be economic aggression.
Together with it they increase the escalation of violence, as it has since last April, which leads to a civil war or the appearance of it, and hinders the actions of the government to defeat the
Economic aggressions. They also try to strengthen the image that "the regime" It is a dictatorship, without scruples or support.
They promote the idea that there is a humanitarian crisis and international assistance is required, and that chaos is widespread. They accelerate pressures and maneuvers in order to strengthen the diplomatic siege and seek to create the conditions for an eventual direct military intervention. Always with the widest communication support.
The alibi of the empire and its supporters inside and outside of Venezuela, is to assign to the Bolivarian government and the economic-social and political model that it advances, the burden of the disaster they have generated as a result of the economic war and other subversive actions.
Such maneuver is urgent to deny it, because she is the platform to justify all the aggressions, including the dirty war and the armed intervention.
Not for cynical that campaign diminishes its potential to confuse many people, outside and inside Venezuela, thanks to the systematic bombardment of media fallacies. And because the serious effects of economic aggression on people's daily lives, facilitate the distortion of reality.
Since mid-2012, it is notorious that the United States is acting with haste to overthrow the Bolivarian power in the short term. Hence the rhythm and breadth of economic aggression. And if it has not succeeded, it is due to the strength shown by the Bolivarian Revolution.
It is no coincidence that after assuming control of the National Assembly in January 2016, the political opposition has proposed to take President Maduro out in six months. Nor act since then with such belligerence against the other powers. Undoubtedly, they feel supported by the power of the empire. In particular, they perceive that the economic war is a success and they bet that it will be more and more strenuous, to favor the objective of devastating the revolution in a prompt manner.
Such urgency and underestimation of the popular and military strength of the Revolution, make the empire and its accomplices inside and outside of Venezuela commit serious errors of political strategy and tactics. They are blinded by the opportunity they believed definitive, after the death of Chávez in 2013. They feel confident the effects that they have achieved with the economic war, the difficulties that have arisen to the Bolivarian government due to the fall in the price of oil -to what the United States has contributed- and a less favorable context in South America.
President Maduro and the Bolivarian leadership have understood that the victory over the current imperial attack - the most comprehensive, powerful and perverse since 1999 - is to reverse the causes that have partially led to the success achieved by the enemy in the implementation of the economic war. This is a decisive and complex battlefront, which the president and the Bolivarian civic-military leadership face with strategic centrality and practical actions, based on the creativity and integrity of the Chavista people.
The results that are being achieved with the implementation of the Local Food and Production Committees (Claps) and the Great Sovereign Supply Mission are encouraging, together with various measures associated with the supervision and control of imports, production and distribution and better control of borders.
Decisions about the use of foreign currency and other similar measures in the economic and financial field are praiseworthy. And it is crucial to define and put into operation the "fifteen engines" to move towards a new stage of development, which finally exceeds the distortive rentier oil, in line with the economic thought of Chavez and his Plan for the Homeland formulated in 2012.
There is clarity about certain vulnerabilities. Among them: the high concentration of production, imports and the distribution of goods and services in a small number of companies; the domination of monopolies and oligopolies in the markets of basic goods; the high dependence on imports and the imperative to substitute a large part of them with national production.
There is also awareness that the State has been deficient - with expressions of corruption - in its role as regulator and supervisor of the large producing, marketing and importing companies, and of the financial system and banks.
On the other hand, this is a Sui generis war where until now there are no guilty or prisoners. However, there is induced shortages and inflation, sabotage in the supply, undercover trade embargo and high numbers of contraband via the border. And all this causes serious violations of the human rights of the Venezuelan people, who are victims of lack of food, medicines and medical supplies, and other essential items for life.
It is to be hoped that the National Constituent Assembly will thoroughly examine the current counterrevolutionary strategy conceived and directed by imperialism. In particular, the components and those responsible for economic warfare, in order to adopt new measures with more immediate effects and reinforce structural ones, to reverse their effects, suppress the causes and prevent their repetition.
The consequences of economic aggression are enormous and it is not convenient to minimize them. The empire took advantage of an unexpected conjuncture. He attacked thoroughly and without mercy.
Therefore, being radical is the premise; going to the roots is the path. And only the civilian and military people, mobilized, conscious and united -as it already happens-, will be able to obtain another formidable laurel. This time, without the physical presence of its leader, but of its loyal followers, headed by President Maduro .
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