2018 Belmont Stakes Primer: Odds, the Favorite, Contenders, and a Bet

Can Justify win the Triple Crown? If you are betting tomorrow, read this first.

The sports world will turn its attention to the Belmont Stakes —the third and final leg of the Triple Crown — on Saturday as Justify tries to make history by capturing horse racing’s Trifecta.

Before we jump into it all, let’s start with the horses, their positions, and their odds to win it all:

Odds

TIDBITS YOU SHOULD KNOW:

• The last horse to capture the Triple Crown was American Pharoah in 2015, ending a 37-year drought. Pharoah’s trainer was none other than Bob Baffert, who also trains Justify.
• The Belmont is 1 1/2-miles long. None of the horses in the 2018 field has ever run a race as long as the Belmont. This will definitely be a factor towards the end of the race.
• Rob Gronkowski has a horse in the race! Gronk is part-owner of the horse.
• One issue that could potentially impact the race is the weather. The forecast calls for rain, which would help slop runners. This would be a welcome sight for Justify, as he won both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness in muddy tracks.

THE FAVORITE:

Justify (4/5)

Justify is the odds-on favorite after winning both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.

top Challengers:

• Vino Rosso (8/1) – He finished ninth in the Derby, and skipped the Preakness to be ready for this race. He has the pedigree from Curlin, and a trainer in Todd Pletcher has won the Belmont before with Palace Malice. He will also have the stamina to be there at the end.
• Blended Citizen (15/1) – Since adding blinkers, he has won two of three races, including the Peter Pan Stakes a little over a month ago. He is also built to run this longer distance.
• Hofburg (9/2) – Should be good to run the long distance and has a Hall of Fame trainer in Bill Mott. Mott won the 2010 Belmont with Drosselmeyer.
• Bravazo (8/1) – Finished 6th in the Derby, and was closing in on Justify in the Preakness. Has shown that he can handle the slop track. Trained by the legendary D. Wayne Lukas.
• Tenfold (12/1) – Third in the Preakness and is a lightly raced horse, so he should have the legs at the end. Has a great trainer in Steve Asmussen.

MY PICKS:

This will be Justify’s sixth race in less than four months, and third in just five weeks, which is a pretty grueling schedule for any horse. Justify also drew the 1 post, which Baffert himself was not happy about:

“I never like to draw the rail, but my horses seem to live with it. We have it, we can’t change it, so we just deal with it.”

Although it would be amazing to see him make history, I see him running out of gas towards the end. There is also not a lot of value betting on a heavy favorite like him in this race. I went all-in on Justify in the Preakness and it paid off, but those were different circumstances. I’ll have Justify in an exacta or trifecta, but I’m taking an exacta box with Vino Rosso, Blended Citizen, and Bravazo. One of those three will win the Belmont and stop Justify from making history.