Winnipeg Jets NHL Expansion Draft Plans - Part 5: The Goaltenders

The NHL expansion draft is rapidly approaching! This will be the means by which the Vegas Golden Knights acquire players for their inaugural NHL season in 2017-18. In preparation, I will be posting a series of posts to explore the rules of the draft, and how the Winnipeg Jets might approach it. The series will include:

1. Exploring the rules of the NHL expansion draft and how they apply to the Winnipeg Jets
2. 7/3/1 or 8/1 for the Winnipeg Jets?
3. The Defense: would Toby Enstrom waive his No-move clause?
4. The Forwards: will the Jets try to cash in on Mathieu Perreault’s peak value by trading him prior to the expansion draft?
5. Veteran goaltender: exploring the impact of acquiring one before the expansion draft
6. My projected Winnipeg Jets expansion draft protected list.

In this post, I’ll take a look at the veteran goaltenders who might be available by trade, and consider whether the Jets should try to acquire one prior to the expansion draft. I will also consider which goaltenders might be available in free agency, or by trade after the expansion draft.

It has been well established that the Jets goaltending in 2016-17 was not up to par, and was the biggest reason why the team did not make the playoffs. It is a foregone conclusion that Ondrej Pavelec has played his last game as a Jet, and the same is likely true of Michael Hutchinson. While Connor Hellebuyck disappointed overall last year, he remains an excellent prospect who likely just needs a little more seasoning and support from a veteran goaltending partner. For this reason, the Jets would need to carefully consider the ramifications of trading for a veteran goaltender prior to the expansion draft, as only one of Hellebuyck and the newly acquired veteran could be protected.

So which veterans might be available in trade? In order to quickly assess the market, I used the expansion draft tool at CapFriendly.com, and used the Quick Protect function while enforcing expansion draft rules:

This yielded a rough list of goaltenders unlikely to be protected during the expansion draft, which could be divided into UFAs, RFAs and goaltenders under contract. This process yielded the following list of veterans under contract for the 2017-18 season:

• Indicates situations where one of two possible goaltenders will be protected, i.e. Mrazek/Howard and Luongo/Reimer.
  Red font indicates players the Jets could conceivably trade for.

Over the last three years, Mrazek and Howard have cumulative Sv% of 0.912 and 0.913, respectively. These numbers are virtually identical to those produced by the Jets goaltenders in the same time frame (0.909-0.911). While Raanta has a career 0.917 Sv%, he has only played 94 career games, never more than 30 in a season. These players are unlikely to represent a significant upgrade, leaving Luongo/Reimer and Fleury. These three goaltenders have produced between 0.917 and 0.920 Sv% over the last three seasons. Fleury is clearly the prime target based on performance, age and known availability.

So, should the Jets trade for him prior to the expansion draft? It would cost them a fair amount, considering Fleury's playoff performance. In addition, in order to keep both Fleury and Hellebuyck, they would likely need to make a separate deal with Vegas. An intriguing option could be to hold out in the hopes that Pittsburgh does not complete a deal for Fleury, and he is picked by Vegas. With the goaltenders projected to be available, Vegas could conceivably pick all of Fleury, Howard, Reimer, and Malcolm Subban, then turn around and trade Fleury to a team like the Jets. That scenario would likely be the most desirable for the Jets in terms of cost of obtaining a player like Fleury.

A fall back option would be a to sign an UFA goaltender come July 1st. Available options are likely to include Brian Elliott, Chad Johnson, Steve Mason, Jonathan Bernier and Ryan Miller. Perhaps surprisingly, both Elliott and Mason have produced 0.918 Sv% over the last three years while each playing more than 130 games in that time period. Both could likely be had on the cheap, with little expectation to be given a clear starter's role. Given these fall back options, the best course for the Jets may be to hope Fleury is not traded prior to the expansion draft, and then make a play for him in the aftermath.