Should we invest in North Korea Cash or other things?
After historical meeting between Donald Trump and Kim Jong un, many people expect that North Korea may give up their nuclear weapon and open their market. (maybe these things need more time than we expect and also these are not likely to happen)
picture source of <http://standard.rs/picture-of-the-day/istorija/>
Assuming that things are solved well, What should we invest in North Korea?
I saw the article that Jim Rogers who’s one of success investors said that “If we all bought North Korean currency, we’d all be rich someday”
<https://www.businessinsider.com/jim-rogers-if-we-all-bought-north-korean-currency-wed-all-be-rich-someday-2016-8>
He thought that if Korea get reunification in the future, North Korea currency has become strengthen. There was similar case in the Germany. When Germany become reunification, Western Germany offer 1 to 1 exchange rate for Eastern Germany money and this rate was fixed so Eastern Germany currency was overvalued. People who had Eastern Germany currency got benefit from reunification currency process.
<http://articles.latimes.com/1990-04-24/news/mn-317_1_east-german>
Also, Kim Jong un had studied in Swiss so He knew benefit of capitalism. He will open the market as similar as China did. As North Korea GDP is increasing, North Korea Currency may also strengthen.
I also agree that this scenario will be true in the long term.
(assuming that two conditions(reunification, open the north Korea market) are satisfied)
But, in the short term, It may be not good idea.
Why? North Korea currency value plunged due to currency reform in 2009.
The North Korea currency was abandoned by North Korea People especially, who work in market.
picture source of <http://nutmegcollector.blogspot.com/2009/02/activists-launches-5000-won-notes-to.html>
In fact, The North Korea is Socialist state and government denied capitalist market. But north Korea people make a money by selling their product in the black market because they cannot live with only government allocation. Some people accumulate their money by sales and they became rich in the north Korea.
But the North Korea government had reformed currency in 2009. They issued new currency and they fixed 1 to 100 exchange rate for old currency. However, They limited exchange amount of money to 100,000 North Korea Won. People who saved exceed of 100,000 won have to throw out exceed money and they didn’t trust North Korea won. These days, they use dollar and yuan instead of North Korea won. The official new North Korea won to US dollar exchange rate was fixed at 100 won. But in the black market, one dollar can be exchanged for 8,000 won.
<http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=3047486>
What Should we invest another things in North Korea?
I think tourism industry is good investment source in North Korea.
Most of journalist said South Korea and North Korea will build new trail and highway to connect with them and develop Logistic industry. But this agenda need much money and much time. Compared to the infrastructure business, tourism industry is effective to make a dollar and yuan in the short time.
Also, Kim Jong un want to develop Masikryong Ski Resort. Masikryong Ski Resort opened in 2014 and development cost was $35,340,000 but, They didn’t gather enough tourist since sanction against north Korea.
picture source of wiki
North Korea had opened the geumgangsan tour from 1998 to 2008 for 10 years. It’ll be much easier to open again this tour.
You’ll get the investment chance by buying the related stock or direct investment if North Korea get out of sanction and open their market to the foreigner. Focus on the North Korea.