Variance
Been a while since I've updated the blog. To sum up the past 10 days or so, all I can think to say is that I've been running good.
I'm up about $4k over that time period.
I wish I could say that it was completely due to my stellar play, but the fact is that results in the short term are heavily influenced by luck. And what is considered the short term is grossly underestimated by most people.
One reader commented on a previous blog that a sample size of 10k was necessary to have meaningful data. And that's a start... but nowhere near enough to derive things like a player's win rate with any confidence.
A great tool for illustrating the impact of variance is the Poker Variance Calculator. It simulates 100k hand samples and graphs their profit. Even given the modestly winning default inputs, results vary wildly.
A hypothetical player with a win rate of 2.5 BB per 100 hands is over 21% likely to be down after 100k hands!!
Just let that sink in.
A winning player will lose 20 buy-ins (or more) at NLHE over the course of 100k hands, over 60% of the time. And about half of the time, they will suffer a 30 buy-in downswing.
That basically amounts to a coin flip whether a 30 buy-in bankroll will last 100k hands. Scary stuff.
Be careful out there.
Freeroll!!
The first freeroll for the blog is coming up this Friday at 4 PM CDT/2 PM PST.
The password is: rungoot
To play for free, just go to lucksacks.com and sign up!
Good luck!
Thanks for your tourney.
that's a great graph.
:)
hey... thanks for the game... i clicked to follow your account yesterday before the game started but just noticed now that you weren't on my follow list...i think maybe the ddos might have been screwing things... reclicked and following now... is it too late? (i won btw...) following @bacchist also...
Looking pretty good so far. Whether it's luck or not, you're coming out ahead. That's all that matters.
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Interesting. For a second I was thinking this was about digital currency but poker is interesting as well.
good post
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STOPI'm new to poker but having fun. happy to be a follower and listen to your advice. Thanks for the tourney too, will you be at the tables ? and under what name ?
Cheers