Euro Elections — What now?

Across Europe as a whole we see the clearest sign yet that the realignment of politics is entering its final phase. The parties that lost ground massively were the traditional centre left and centre right. This has been interpreted as a 'decline of the centre' but that is incorrect. They were the centre of the old alignment on economics. In the new alignment on identity and nationalism versus cosmopolitanism there's a new centre with a different content (although the location and content of that centre hasn't been defined yet). The big gainers were the groups that represent the three new poles we can see emerging: National collectivist (economically interventionist, but sometimes 'capitalism in one country', traditionalist and strongly anti-globalist), green (radical left but mainly on social issues, economics touchy feely anti-capitalism plus strong globalism), liberals (moderately pro free market, culturally liberal, strongly globalist). It looks as though in Europe as a whole it will be nationalists and liberals as the two main poles with the greens/radical left a strong third.

We may have seen the first real emergence of a genuine European demos and pan-European politics. The rise of radical nationalism has provoked a response from people who have suddenly realised that Being European (understood in a globalist sense) is a part of their identity. Meanwhile we can see the first signs of the appearance of a radical right pan-European identitarian movement (the argument is that to be truly European you should be white, Christian and definitely not Muslim or from Africa or Asia). So I think the emerging European politics will be an argument about what European identity is.

Here in the UK same story. Voters essentially polarised along remain versus leave lines. The middle ground on Brexit (leave with a deal) was squeezed to near terminal status. If you add up the votes about 36% voted for hard leave and 40% for hard remain parties. That means that regardless of what the outcome is (assuming it's not going to be a deal) about 30-40% of voters are going to be really, really pissed off. Not good.

The Labour and Conservative parties are the expression of large geographical and social voter coalitions distinguished from each other by the view they take on economics and the role of government in the economy (most working class plus a part of the professional/middle class, public sector employees vs some working class, most middle class, business class). That economic division is no longer the primary one. The new primary division is over culture politics and identity and it cuts across the economic division. The real division now is between the globally connected and successful city regions and their inhabitants versus the countryside and small towns plus old ex-industrial areas. So working class in South Wales valleys are no longer in the same coalition as working class in London or Manchester. Younger educated middle class professionals in e.g. Cambridge not in the same coalition as older middle class voters in rural Lincolnshire. We can see the same three new poles emerging here in the UK as in the rest of Europe.

So both the Labour Party and the Conservative party are in a very difficult position. They are desperately trying to hold their existing coalitions together and get the argument back to economics but that isn't going to happen. Instead if they are to survive (not at all certain in either case) they have to come down on one side or the other of the new division. The problem is that while there is an apparently obvious choice in both cases (leave for the Tories, Remain for Labour) in either of those cases the political cost will be high. In that case the Labour Party would lose ground heavily in Wales, the Midlands and the North while the Conservatives would lose a lot of middle class votes in the South East and the M4 corridor. I think it may well be too late actually for both of them, I think we are in the middle of a huge transfer of loyalties.

The new politics is going to be very unpleasant and polarised for quite some time. While you can compromise on economics and things like tax levels it is much more difficult to do that when issues of identity are at stake. That leads to a much more intransigent kind of politics. I do think a modus vivendi will emerge but it's going to be difficult.