Looking back!

Before we look forward, we have to look back.
Yesterday 4 bets placed. Only 1 winner, 1 push and 2 loosing ones. The Tottenham bet with odds above 3 resulted in a push. The bet on Fulham was just a complete mis :(.
St Truiden, what can I say. Having 20 goal attempts, but only 6 of these attempts are on the goal. On the other side 2 shots on goal against but also 1 goal conceded. So, it could have been different!

Looking forward

3 games in the Premier League and also 3 games in the Jupiler Pro League! And some interesting ones! Let's see where we will be betting on!

Liverpool vs West Ham

Most football fans and for sure the ones of Liverpool, do expect an easy victory at the season opening game against West Ham. And both models do support this idea!

Unfortunate the bookies are also seeing it this way. The odds for a straight win are too low for me to bet on, just like the asian handicap odds, which only start to get interesting from -2 (2.152).
While I do know that the last 4 confrontations all had at least 4 goals, I om not temped to go for the over, nor I am temped by the both teams to score market.

Which leaves me with the Liverpool -2 market. I will take the shot because I do think that it will result at least into a push.

Southampton vs Burnley

The analysis for this can be really short. I do think that the bookies have set the odds wrong. The straight win for Burnley is above 5. This reflects a winning percentage of 20%.

Well I do think that Burnley has around 35% to 45% win chance. So this is in my opinion an easy value bet! I do know that Burnley did play an Europa League Qualification games last Thursday and I do know that they will have the second leg next Thursday, but still I do think that a repeat of last season result should be more than possible, which was a 0-1 win for Burnley!

Straight win for Burnley with odds of 5.06 it will be!

Arsenal vs Manchester City

Also an easy conclusion here. I will stay away from this market! Probably city will win this one. But I will not bet on every game and just have more believe in the other 2 bets in the Premier League!
If you do want to bet on the game, Man City to win (odds: 1.885) would be an excellent bet!

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Just like in England 3 games will be played in the Belgian Jupiler Pro League.

Oostende vs Genk

Genk, the favorite for this game, did start the season with a win and a draw. Oostende on the other side started with a win, but lost in an attractive game last week against Anderlecht.

I will stay away from this game. Genk had an European game last Thursday and also will have one next Thursday, which is just a little bit more important than the away trip to Oostende.

So, I do consider this a game which could be both ways. So, I will back off and wait for other opportunities!

Charleroi vs Anderlecht

And here we have the better opportunity. Anderlecht did start the season as a rocket with 2 wins, 9 goals scored and 3 conceded goals.

Charleroi on the other hand lost the opening game at home against Antwerp with 0-1 and won at Eupen after Eupen did receive a red card!

So, Anderlecht is a huge favorite for this game. For sure if you know that Charleroi doesn't really have a home reputation.

Anderlecht -1 for odds at 3!

Gent vs Waasland-Beveren

I can also be short about this game. I will stay away from it. Gent will win this for sure, but I can't find any market where the odds are high enough and my believe in winning the bet is strong enough!

The bets

Date	Bet	Stake	Odds	Result	Bookie
August 12, 2018	Liverpool -2	1	2.133	Pending	Nitrogensports.eu
August 12, 2018	Burnley	1	5.06	Pending	Nitrogensports.eu
August 12, 2018	Anderlecht -1	1	3	Pending	Unibet

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Monthly overview

Month	Bets	Won	Lost	Push	Staked	Profit	ROI
August, 2018	20	8	9	3	23	3.9	16.9%

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Detailed overview

Date	Bet	Stake	Odds	Result	Bookie
August 1, 2018	Genk -1.5	1	1.772	Won	Nitrogensports.eu
August 3, 2018	Over 2.5	1	1.825	Lost	Nitrogensports.eu
August 3, 2018	Standard -0.5	1	1.854	Lost	Nitrogensports.eu
August 4, 2018	Over 2.5 ANT vs KOR	1	1.945	Lost	Nitrogensports.eu
August 4, 2018	Charleroi	1	2.642	Won	Nitrogensports.eu
August 4, 2018	Gent -1	1	2.4	Lost	Nitrogensports.eu
August 5, 2018	AND -1.5	1	2.331	Won	Nitrogensports.eu
August 5, 2018	Genk -1.5	1	2.152	Lost	Nitrogensports.eu
August 5, 2018	Club Brugge -1.5	1	2.192	Lost	Nitrogensports.eu
August 7, 2018	Standard DNB	2	2.796	Push	Nitrogensports.eu
August 8, 2018	Celtic -1	1	2.241	Lost	Nitrogensports.eu
August 8, 2018	Over 2.5 POAK vs Spartak	1	2.38	Won	Unibet
August 9, 2018	Gent ML	2	2.366	Won	Nitrogensports.eu
August 9, 2018	Over 2.5 POAK vs Spartak	2	2.271	Won	Nitrogensports.eu
August 10, 2018	Man United -1	1	1.927	Push	Nitrogensports.eu
August 10, 2018	Club Brugge -2	1	2.311	Won	Nitrogensports.eu
August 11, 2018	Tottenham -1	1	3.104	Push	Nitrogensports.eu
August 11, 2018	Fulham	1	2.575	Lost	Nitrogensports.eu
August 11, 2018	St Truiden -1	1	2.34	Lost	Nitrogensports.eu
August 11, 2018	Antwerp	1	2.187	Won	Nitrogensports.eu

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Good luck,
Peter

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