Building On The Bookie Odds - Part 2
I'm going to be collecting more data on using bookie odds as the basis for my model. Truth be told, i'm expecting some mean reversion in this round so let's see how we do over 30 matches. The criteria has remained the same.
There aren't too many matches to bet on. Around 5-8 each day that fulfill the criteria. As i mentioned in part one, having a 25% difference in chance to clear bookie odds filters out a lot of matches. Let's see how we do today:
| Match | Prediction | Odds | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa vs Gençlerbirliği | Kasimpasa | 2.2 | W |
| Meixian vs Beijing | Meixian | 2 | L |
| Virtus Entella vs Frosinone | Frosinone | 2 | W |
| Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice | Slask | 2.5 | W |
| Baltika Kalininggrad vs Tyumen | Baltika | 2.5 | W |
| St Johnstone vs Ross County | St Johnstone | 2.7 | L |
6 matches to wager on. I'm not comfortable betting with the Chinese league, tends to be terrible, but let's see if our filter holds up. Will update with the results tomorrow.
Great! ;)
Yesterday, you made almost three units in profit on four units staked, 3/4 predicted correctly ... if it holds a few days in a row... winner winner chicken dinner!
Fingers crossed! Interesting that the last match didn't pan out after odds changed.
And you've done it again: +3.2 units of profit!
Liking the results so far haha. Been really busy today, hope to put together another list for today's matches but will probably have to skip a day and do Monday's.
You are onto something here. Don't get discouraged by the variation.
If you track it for a month, even if in general it turns out to be unprofitable, you'll most likely see what filter to apply to make it profitable. My guess is that it will work better for some leagues, worse for the others,...