Thinking out loud, how much user costs?
I was thinking about the price of crypto for a long time and I'm afraid a bit.
Here is why. If we divide "market cap" of various companies with the number of users we will find that
- ebay, amazon, alibaba... value their users at about 500 $
- social networks, FB, Insta,Twitter value their users at about 100 $
- Groupon-like websites' users are worth 10 $
Marketcap of Steem is 100.000.000 $
We certainly don't have 1.000.000 users - so we are not FB. Our users are more valuable.
Maybe in 1.000 $ per user range. Range of those companies where people are spending their money.
But still, we don't have 100.000 users.
Do you find it realistic that every Seemian is about 2-3.000 $ worth?
If you think the same - power down and wait....
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This post got $0.33 already. How often do you post in a year?
STEEM valuation works completely differently than the models you are describing. those models are all based on the annual REVENUE earned from each of their users (or in more sophisticated models, the contribution margin of that revenue).
What is the revenue of each STEEM user? How can that even be measured? In a sense, you could say that reward pool is the revenue, assuming no external revenue sources. In that case, you have an implicit valuation and IRR (inflation rate).
If user growth is expected to exceed inflation rate, then STEEM will appreciate (and may be undervalued, depending on the growth rate expected.) If user growth is expected to fall short of inflation rate, then STEEM will continue to drop.
Since STEEM price has been dominated by correlations with BTC price, it's hard to tell how much 'fundamentals' are already baked into the price. Given that on-chain APR's exceed inflation rate by 250%, I would guess that STEEM is still heavily undervalued. not financial advice, but I'll keep building on Steem and investing operationally for the foreseeable future.
First, 100% upvote for this comprehensive answer.
FB stock price are "paged" to ads, revenues... Steem are currently paged to - nothing. This could be heaven, or hell. I would be happier to see Steem implemented to some strong (at least average) web platforms. If sttong players don't believe... it's not pleasant.
Revenue... I was above the aveage :) but it's easy to calculate - pool of rewards / number of users = about 100 $ per year. Not bad, but still not paged.
I see it as an error. If 1 day work for a bounty = 100 Steem = Steem is 0.5-1$ worth. Today, worthless posts can earn 500 Steem = Steem is 0.001$ worth
Finally, BTC / Steem correlation. Steem is falling down, steadily for more than a year. It lost 90% of its value vs BTC. Steem is doing something wrong...
Also, it was in top 20-30 coins, and today its positioned around 60th place. Not good...
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Exactly, you are spot on!!!
it depends on the revenue model. They know nothing about me. They don't make professional advertisements. The only value they get is information in form of articles and creativity and this value does not depend on the upvote my whale buddies give me, but the entropic-surprise it creates in peoples minds. If the information in the article diverges greatly from expectation, then surprise or information-deficit was big. This unexpected thing is what attracts people to the platform.
On youtube you can learn, on facebook you can get gossip about your friends, this is valuable PLUS you give away a ton of information. Facebook even collects your biometrics from the photos and cooperates with CIA and military to test the algorithms for face recognition. The sample sizes of faces are huge.
Quite lucky about my power down. I think yours came to the right time too?
Too little too late... I've bought some BTC in summer 2018, than waited for HF20 to make something - it didn't. And started powering down again in late winter 2019.
I still believe that this could be actually successful because other products are equally horrible :D
Steemit needs 3 relatively smart decisions. Not super smart, like IQ160 and 30 years of experience. It needs a decent MSc in economy/ marketing and about 95 IQ points and a pinch of street smart.
Unfortunately, aftet 1.5 years, I think that we are not going to see that right decision.
There is too much down to earth thinking and too few bravery. Also, too strong complex to fall down to deserved position. How else to explain the fear of having competent people? We had scientists, Discovery Channel photographer, several Youtubers with 100k+ followers, never to earn 10$. Hell, we even had porn stars - still 0$. We had 2 most popular games - nothing. Genious Engrave - nothing. And RT, a bombshell. Still, no support from top ranking.
How many wasted chances can we get?
Trending page is still bogus, WYSIWYG editor is not there and you need 2 pay 2 join, epic failure screaming Scam, although there is no scam.
I can feel you? Are you rage quitting?
It's a strange feeling, it's like when your brother/sister/child is doing something fundamentally wrong and stupid, you are giving your best to correct them, only to become even more frustrated.
Gotcha, they really just don't care.
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Doing the same thing here
unfortunately there is more dark news on this chain ...
https://steemit.com/steem/@smidge-tv/after-exposing-berniesanders-kawaiicrush-suddenly-lost-all-rc-credits-wow
Interesting
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