Weak Hands?

in #steem5 years ago (edited)

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I've encountered people lamenting what they perceive as lackluster price action of STEEM in recent weeks. While it is correct to note that STEEM has fallen hard in the last couple of years relative to BTC, I don't think it makes any sense to try and ascribe meaning to short term price action. Only a month ago, BTC was priced at $5,000 and STEEM was 50 cents. Now STEEM is about 30 cents and BTC is nearly $6,000 and eyeing further gains. The soft roll-out of MIRA, a crucial piece of the Steem infrastructure allowing for a drastic reduction in node operating costs was recently announced. It didn't register at all. The short term price action is simply random noise.

The current dip is a buying opportunity, especially if it continues any further. There are clear signs of spring in the entire crypto market. November may have seen the capitulation event the market was anticipating. The next Bitcoin mining reward halvening is estimated to happen 381 days from now, in May next year. Bull runs have usually followed the halvenings that take place every four years. As the rest of the crypto space tends to follow Bitcoin and be quite sentiment-driven, there is no reason to doubt that STEEM, too, will post a new all time high probably 1-2 years from now.

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It certainly is the case that the Steem ecosystem is more robust, varied and developed than ever before. With MIRA now complete, the next goal for Steemit Inc will be to get SMTs finally done. But we already have Steem-Engine and all the wonderful developments taking place on it, including tokens on a side chain.

There is absolutely no reason to get worked up about short term price action. Part of the reason why Steem's rank among crypto projects has fallen in terms of market cap is the introduction of plenty of new projects. Much why Steem has fallen back can be put down to past mismanagement by Steemit Inc, though. But even that shouldn't worry us excessively since the survival of Steem is pretty much guaranteed by the cutting edge work done by Steemit Inc in creating a set of interfaces (MIRA) to allow the blockchain to be stored on cheap SSD mass memory instead of expensive RAM on RocksDB, a high-performance database engine created by Facebook - without rewriting the blockchain code.

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The whole space is characterized by immature technology and even more immature products. The astounding fact that a project whose rank in market cap is 60 on Coinmarketcap is able to have the most traffic and the most used apps in the entire space is a testament to that. And even the most used Steem apps have daily active users counted in the thousands. By the standards of the centralized world that's microscopic. The largest centralized platforms are larger by six orders of magnitude. The race, if you can even call that since this space is up against legacy systems in countless fields instead of each other, has only begun.

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Very well said I couldn't agree more. I try not to be a 'fan boy' with this thing and have been harsh when I felt upper management was not giving this place a chance to succeed. But now, I am in agreement with your feelings listed above this is being given a chance to succeed and bringing more value quite honestly than it ever really has since becoming a blockchain social network for dapp creators trying to make themselves something like a github when they first started. I have all but thrown in the towel at moments and been very critical of what I felt was a disaster on wheels that this place seemed but I have really turned the feelings of anger in that a golden opportunity was missed, to now thinking there still is a chance to hit very big and reclaim their position as a high flier that they can be.

This post has received a 6.1 % upvote from @boomerang.

Yours is one of the best article's I've read on the STEEM-BTC pricing situation. I think, while most crypto is highly indexed to BTC, steem is probably a bit more tied to fiat/USD due to the high costs of running servers and people cashing out to support life stuff. If that is the case then MIRA (and other updates) might stem that outflow a little and allow prices to index more closely to BTC movements.
I some ways, it's good to have a token that's known for moving differently to BTC. The reason is that it gives the BTC traders somewhere to jump when BTC gets speed wobbles. Mind you, if that happened wholesale then the value of steem would fluctuate very very wildly.
I'm not bothered about the steem price in the short term. The fundamentals for steem are more about the number of active users anyway.

All the alts became the next target for speculative money right after the last BTC all time high. Bitcoin peaked on December 18. A couple of weeks later on January 3, STEEM peaked at slightly over $8. Dozens of alts popped around the same time.

If the price of STEEM were solely determined by its fundamentals right now, that would actually be a scary prospect. The most high traffic Steem app is DrugWars and it only has about 5000 daily active users. It is hard to overstate how pitiful that number is. That kind of numbers cannot possibly allow the Steem infrastructure to be run and development costs covered by generating sufficient ad revenue. The STEEM price is still overwhelmingly based on future expectations and thus somewhat speculative. That's why it was horrible for Steemit Inc waste the massive opportunities afforded by the run from 7 cents in March 2017 to the ATH inJanuary 2018 and to November 2018 when the price crashed. It was nearly unforgivable.

What I'm really hoping for is a high correlation between the prices of BTC and STEEM. That would take the market cap of Steem back to a multi billion dollar level and allow Steemit Inc and various app and side chain developers to really ramp up their work in preparation of mass adoption.

Most of the people who are vocal about being upset by the price are pointing at someone else to step up and do something.

The fact is we are all owners and if you want to see something done differently, one needs to do it.

That is on point.
$rewarding 28% 15 min

MIRA was big news and it will help Steem gain it's rightful place back higher up on Coin market cap. I don't think we will have to wait two years though with the likes of Fidelity starting in the next couple of weeks. New money is coming which will boost the entire market.

I hope so. But we’ll see if regulators will actually agree to it now.

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Yeah, I feel great about it because i bought steem at $4, $5 and $6. I don't have much fiat to buy at these prices but I'm trying hard to earn more. It's much easier to earn steem at low prices.

Definitely easier now.
$rewarding 28% 15 min

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what do you mean rewarding 28% 15 min. I'm not sure what you are trying to say.

This is funny. I was invoking the bot @rewarding. It is used for delayed upvoting.

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wait a minute. Tell me about this bot? what is if for?

Delayed upvoting. You don’t want to upvote right away because if you do, you’ll lose curation rewards.

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hmmm. I thought that changed at the last fork

No. Now early voters lose curation to the pool instead of the author.

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Thanks for sharing! Next year things will be very different! Some people just can’t wait and can’t see what’s happening around the world economies!

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Hi @markkujantunen!

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