Sia, Can You Explain Obelisk Pre-Sale Disaster?

in #steem7 years ago (edited)

I really, really, really wanted to buy an Obelisk. Not, just one but 4-8... Sia Tech is right down the street from me and I wanted to support the local boys but I can't. I believe in the technology but this pre-sale for the asic, Obelisk, has been a disaster.

Siacoin market cap (at time of writing) is $289 million. They are competing against big boys like Amazon (Amazon S3), google (Google cloud storage), Dropbox, and Microsoft (microsoft Azure).

In tradition cloud storage, you upload your files to the “cloud” - all of your files are help by a single company like amazon or google. They have access to all your files, are in control of them and issues, such as database leaks, can happened.

With Sia, you upload your files to a DECENTRALIZED private cloud. Your files are encrypted and distributed across a network. You hold your keys, you own your data. Your data is distributed among a number of hosts, none of which can manipulate the data. All of this is done through smart contracts. Sia holds the payment in escrow until the contract is finished. Sia also is only about 1/10 the cost of tradition storage.

Sia is doing something awesome. I really like the concept being the company. I think they are doing something great but they screwed the pooch with this Obelisk release. . .

Sia recently announced an ASIC called the OBELISK capable of mining Siacoin at 100+GH/S. They actually do not know the hashrate because the obelisk is so early in development.

The Obelisk is slated for a release next summer a YEAR from now... $2500 for an ASIC that is still in the early stage of development? What if another company develops one sooner? What if Sia is no longer a company? What if the ASIC is not ready in time?

Sia is a 300 million dollar company but the team does not have the capital for developing the Obelisk chip so they needed to do a pre-sale a year before the Obelisk will be finished. That does not sit well with me.

Presale began a week ago with an end date of 7/6/17. Sia openly said they fully expected 10,000 sales. That did not happen.
Screenshot_20170707-143151.pngThis was taken on 7/4/17

The absolute minimum for the team to ship the unit is 2000 sold. They did not meet that goal. I cannot find any statements from the Sia about what this means. $2.76 million dollars has been raised so far. This is what up live on the site now, 7/7/17...
Screenshot_20170707-143330.png
A day after the pre-sale was suppose to end - well now, magically, its still going on for a "limited time" with a capped sale. Lets see how long this capped extended first batch will go on for. So, your telling me, I can hold my $2500 and wait till 3950 sales happen and then buy an Obelisk and still be part of the pre-sale?? However people who participated in the actual pre-sale (ending on 7/6) do not have their money and now can only sit idle on the sideline as Sia says they will extend the pre-sale till 4000 units are sold. Now 4000 units, all competing, during the 6 weeks guaranteed mining period, That is not right. Simply not right. Sia should issue a refund and/or allow anyone who purchased an Obelisk an option to give up their place and receive a full refund.

Initially, everyone participating in the first batch would have a 6 week guaranteed period of mining before the second back released. This was GUARANTEED. . . until you paid with BTC, unable to get your money back and the 7/6 presale end day came.

siacoin 6 weeks.PNG

When asked before the 7/6 presale end day, what will happen if the 2000 unit sale isn't reached. Sia was not upfront. They should have been upfront and said the presale will be extended.

sia.PNG

Since the minimum 2000 units weren't reached , Sia has rescinded whether the first batch will get a 6 week headstart. They've only made hints to what will happen at this point. Suggesting only a 3 week headstart..

3 weeks.PNG



Let my tell you why this does not sit well with me.
Leading up to 7/6 , Sia guaranteed, anyone buying a first batch (presale ending 7/6), 6 weeks of mining , without competition from the second batch. On 7/6 only 850 were sold. under this scenario, If you bought 8 obelisk, you'd have about 1% of the total supply of Siacoin mined for that 6 weeks period (amount mined with gpu = negligible). Incredibly good, so good I'd be willing to risk what happens between now and the delivery date of next June

Sia made no stipulations of what would would happen if the minimum 'goal' not being met. Sia has already got money for the first batch , their goal is to sell more so they've opened up the second batch sales already by extending the presale. They've decided internally the extended presale will participate in the second 3 weeks of the guaranteed 6 weeks of mining promised only the the first batch buyers . They are 'extending the presale' to 4000 units! the difference between 800 units (true first batch) and 4000 units ("extended" first batch) is extreme. 4000/800 = 5x less profit!

So during these second three weeks, in our scenario of owning 8 Obelisk, instead of mining 1% of the total supply, our Obelisk will mine 5 times less or .2% of the total supply.

Seriously, I'd be ripsh*t finding out my Obelisk was going to be 5x less profitable AFTER being guaranteed 6 weeks of no competition. Steemit-big.png

Tell me your thoughts. Have you bought an Obelisk? I hope Sia can address a few of our concerns. They have not said anything publicly, as far as I know, in the last 48 hours.

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I think the handling of the pre-sale reflects a sign of inexperience rather than malice. The devs are funding themselves from the presale rather than from the ICO-type of hype we normally see. In other words, my understanding is that the devs are not using the siacoin to fund the project's development. The focus of siacoin is as a medium of exchange to be used within the sia network. The real value to the coin is in the technology.

Also, I don't see Sia as a full competitor to Azure or AWS. Those services offer remote infrastructure and processing in addition to data storage. Sia is closer to DropBox or the local ISP that offers mailbox storage. A distributed or network database could be built on top of Sia but that is not the focus of the current development. Sia could be described as Torrent in reverse.

Unforutnately, Sia had to create some degree of hype to attract early buyers into Obelisk in order to raise funds as delivery won't happen for another year. I do agree that Sia should have established a phased purchases offer that advantages early adopters.

The most likely reason for Sia's current poor showing has mostly to do with the bearish market rather than Obelisk itself and Sia large float which turns off many alt-buyers. These weak hands are being flushed out which results in Sia's lower price.

Utilimately, the gamble is in Sia's technology and adoption. Obelisk does look like an interesting way to accumulate a large amont of Siacoins for a relative modest investment but right now with the price this low you could just purchase the coin outright because you are tying up your money for a year. Saying that however, if I had the cash on hand right now I'd buy an Obelisk because of the risk to potential rewards.

I do love Siacoin's storage technology, but I don't really see future growth for the currency, much less now with the Asic schenanigans.

Yeah, I wrote the blog to see how others felt. Its too bad because I like what they stand for and how they are competing against giants like amazon and google - like David and Goliath

As a thank you , let me buy you a coffee, I will send 2 SBD (steem dollars) to 15 random people who comment on this post in the next 24 hours.
post

Not following through with giveaways and promotions could damage your reputation here on Steemit.

Interesting...I am in the process of getting an obelisk myself - not sure why I wouldn't wait till closer to 3500 tho. Up to this point I have found the guys at sia to be very upfront and honest and would expect to hear back from them pretty shortly on this - still think the potential payout for this is ludicrous...and so for me the risk is still worth it

great to hear. I've had the same experience with them as well. They've kindly answered all my questions promptly. I think at this point I will see how siacoin plays out. We've seen a significant dropoff on the siacoin price. It is a down market right now but if you look at siacoin today you see a significant dropoff when compared to yesterday. I think the 'extended pre-sale' will continue for another few months so at this point I will wait and see what the market is like near the end of the presale.

Upvoted:) Nice post:) Also, did you know that months that start on a Sunday will always have a Friday the 13th, lol:D

great paramore covers. you sound just like hayley

The price of Siacoin has been tanking. It's at about 380 satoshis. Is this what's behind it?

I know the price of new coins fluctuates a lot but this is a bad start for a new company, not living up to promises so publicly could kill them off before they've even got started.

...capable of mining Siacoin at 100+GH/S. They actually do not know the hashrate ...

???

should be at least 100+GH/s quote from Sia Tech "at this time we aren't certain what the exact hashrate is going to be, only that we can definitely exceed 100 GH/s."

thanks for upvoting my second account post :)

everytime I hear 'sia' I keep thinking of the singer!

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