RE: Steem Velocity Hardfork - Hardfork 20
Hi @glenalbrethsen. Just to clarify, in terms of the "debt ceiling," the closest thing to that with SBD is the "10% limit" on the debt ratio. Basically what that does is that no matter how much SBD is printed, it will never be allowed to exceed a debt limit of 10% of the STEEM marketcap. SBD will just become redeemable for less than $1 USD worth of STEEM, instead of taking on additioanl debt. Based on that, the safety of how much debt the Steem blockchain takes on (in the form of SBD) is not changing.
What we have seen under current market conditions is that there is still a high demand for SBD (the price is consistently above $1 USD) even though the debt ratio is above 2%. What is happening under the current rules is we are printing less SBD, even though there is still excess demand. This change addresses that by allowing more SBD to be printed.
Another negative impact under the current rules is that it is printing more STEEM (instead of SBD). This means we are seeing additional (unnecessary) downward pressure on the STEEM price, when we could just be printing more SBD instead of STEEM.
The last thing to point out is that the current system is missing out on the best opportunity to use SBD to it's full advantage. When the STEEM price is at it's lowest is really the best time to print more SBD, because if you assume the price will go back up - then the blockchain ends up getting a 'discount' on how much STEEM needs to be created. For example, if $100,000 USD worth of SBD printed today when the STEEM price is around $1.00, it would only need 1/5 the amount of STEEM if the SBD was not redeemed for STEEM until the price of STEEM goes up to $5.00.
Technically the same mechanism works in reverse. If we print a bunch of SBD when the price of STEEM is at $5, and then the price drops down to $1, we have to print 5x as much STEEM. If we allow the debt ratio to get much closer to 10% though (by allowing printing all the way up to 9%), then it reduces this effect. A significant price drop in STEEM will not result in as much STEEM being printed if the debt ratio was already close to 10%, because it would be capped once it reached the 10% limit described above.
Hey, @timcliff. Thank you for answering my question on this. It's been extremely helpful.
Now, what I'm wondering is, are we in some kind of market period where STEEM hasn't been before? I guess I'm wondering if it's known that 9% is the better debt ratio than 5%, why wasn't it lifted before this? And what happens if 9% doesn't prove to be enough for whatever reason?
My guess is, either this kind of market conditions have been here before, but it didn't last long enough to get a change made but it's been sitting on the back burner, or it is new, and based on whatever criteria, it was determined the raise should take place just in case the current situation was prolonged, or came back again at a later date.
You are correct. The situation of SBD being overvalued while the printing limits are being hit has not really happened before. It did happen very briefly in 2017 but quickly went away on its own.
However, the overall goal is not so much to react to one particular market situation as to structurally improve SBD so that it works better and adds value to the Steem platform. The changes were actually implemented and merged into the code before the current market situation occurred (though it had been recognized and anticipated).
These are improvements which have been considered and discussed for a long time and are only now getting rolled out because: a) this is the first hard fork update since early 2017, and b) it took a while to both reach consensus among witnesses, stakeholders, and developers about what to implement and then get them implemented.
Okay. Very good. I'm not sure how anyone else feels about consensus making, but I'm alright with it taking a while. If the required majority gets there through taking the time to deliberate and observe, better decisions get made.
It's interesting to note that this will be the first Hard Fork I'm a part of, along with everyone that has come in since the last fork, which is the vast majority of the accounts, and probably most of the daily user base still here. After 19 happening in less than a year if my math is sound, that seems to make this one that much much anticipated, especially when you add on what is expected to arrive later with Hivemind/Communities and SMTs.
Thanks for all this. I feel like I understand why this is going to happen and the reasoning behind it. I hope it, and the rest of HF 20 goes as intended, or at the very least (since there always seems to be something), keeps pushing us in the right direction. :)
Well the main risk is that we see the opposite of what has been happening with SBD, and there is insufficient demand for it. We have seen that before in the earlier days of Steem. Under that scenario, then market conditions would push for SBD to be converted into STEEM, which would reduce the SBD supply.
It sounds very drastic, but the absolute worst case scenario is that the SBD peg would break in the negative direction, and SBD would be worth less than $1. At that point, it would be up to the market to determine what SBD would be worth.
very good presentation, we hope that content creators related to the price at the crypto market, hopefully the price can go back to strength. this greatly influences our enthusiasm in creating valuable and worthy content
Okay. I think I'm getting this. This is basically a change to help ensure the SBD ratio is maintained within favorable parameters and that it continues to bolster the peg, as it is worse for SBD to break the peg in a negative direction than it is to do so in a positive.
Well, the peg is already 'broken' in the positive direction. There are not really sufficient mechanisms to push the price back down to the peg when it goes up. The changes being discussed here are all intended to help push the peg back down.
Okay. Very good. I feel better now. :) I appreciate the time taken by you and others to explain things. May it all go the direction we all hope it will go—for the betterment of the STEEM platform.
Apologies sir, i have wrong button press downvote 🙏🙏🤦🏿♂️
@glenalbrethsen so sbd won't be higher than 1$ or less than 1$. is this they trying to fix..
Hey, @lelong.
The short answer to that question is probably yes, in theory.
Longer answer is, it's not like they can fix it to any one price point, though. They're doing what they can, but the market is still going to decide what SBD does, even with this code change. Sounds like they're mostly concerned at this point with SBD dropping below a $1, too.
Excellent points I think I follow you here @timcliff. Right now there is an underflow of SBD within the economy and perhaps not coincidentally there is a very very low rate of interaction on here right now with the users across the board. Honestly there really is no way to deny that even with the intentional decrease in supply it has brought steem value's down significantly by price and additional quantities paid out in steem per post--which is the exact opposite intention it was created. Getting to the SBD payouts in posts, if I do not buy anything that really requires me to use SBD (for example bid bots which have basically become the engines that fuel SBD consumption in the economy really at all and are a virtual surefire losing bet right now) why would my post payout be tied and beholden to SBDs? I get the relief they bring in having to produce additional steem in the event of price crunches but isn't this one radical turn from one direction to offset the other? With the ability to overflow the system with up to 4.5 to 5 times more in supply as of say right now isn't that a concern? At $5 steem that isn't much of an issue but what if whales that are unloading truck loads of steem right now keep doing this at prices even below $1 when this fork comes out? SBDs will become an extinct medium of exchange very fast on here for sheer worthlessness.
A very overachieving, proactive approach at this fork would have been having smart tokens ready to launch and take our chances with them working out desired effects that we hope they do in helping reflect the many varied interests of our economy here on steemit. It would seem to solve a lot of this angst that is going on within the community, but it is not even mentioned on this announcement. I hope to avoid sounding like Captain Hindsight, but here we are and we have what we have moving forward. Are we supposed to believe that continuing to bail out the bid bots massive losses since sbds/steem has plummeted and votes are more and more worthless that continuing to fund this losing endeavor with more of the same is a legitimate response to curing these ills? If I were manipulating prices of steem/sbd I would be terrified of a smart token, because now I have to track 10,000 tokens day one when they are able to be implemented and find which are good and which are worthless. Also in the meantime finding out what they are being used for and whether it's worthwhile to follow or not. That is a lot and I would love to hear your response here, I certainly am not venting this all in your direction but to the debate at large and what can be done, and preferably not pushed down the road by a CEO that is currently unloading their stake in the company at two year lows in prices at best.
As far as the smart tokens you are referring to, they sound a lot like what they are planning for SMTs. What are your thoughts on those?
They are incredibly promising. Having the dynamic of getting payouts with them within communities/groups you choose to affiliate and have closer control on how the tokens are issued and how value is created is incredibly intriguing. Having them issued at a customized mode, whether it be in curation rewards or simply upvoting a vested member in a group could go a long way in maintaining and building membership here. It's all future projection of course, it really depends on how they are understood but it does really reward the people that do a lot individual community based activities.
What happens if we reach the 10% doubt ot ownership ratio and the STEEM price drops, let's say, a 50%? In this case the ratio will increase to 20%. Which are the mechanisms to regulate it again?
There is info here: https://steemit.com/sbd/@timcliff/sbd-explained