The Fool's Errand: Min/Max Strategy

in #steemleo5 years ago

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Min/Max is a strategy commonly employed in gaming. The highest priority stat points are maxed out while the lesser gains are somewhat ignored. Sometimes this works out, sometimes not. If you create a character that does the most damage but dies in one hit... you better not get hit.

If you're playing an MMORPG you know what the tank is supposed to do:

Tank!

Your tank should absorb and mitigate as much damage as possible so your healer doesn't run out of mana. Maybe your tank gets the idea that they want to stack dodge stat points. For the sake of argument, let's say they could choose between having damage reduced by 60% or increasing dodge chance by 80%.

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Now, a lot of people here would be tempted to take the 80% dodge. They're only going to actually get hit 20% of the time. Seems pretty good. However, what happens if they randomly get crit 2 times in a row? Zero mitigation, Dead. Game Over.

On the other hand, when 60% mitigation (flat reduced damage) is chosen they become much more immune to violent swings from lady luck. All of a sudden they can make it through the unlucky runs whereas before they couldn't... even if the dodge strat seemed like such a good idea at the time.


Stop increasing volatility/risk for gains over time.


This is especially true in the crypto market. This unregulated Wild West is completely unforgiving and volatile. We often find ourselves increasing our exposure to volatility rather than playing it safe. Everyone wants that big score.

Everyone likes to min/max

Everyone likes to get the most benefit for their investment.
Unfortunately this is often a needlessly risky strategy.
Why go all in on an asset that could go x100 or lose 99%?

That's just greedy.

And there is really no reason to be greedy in this space. x2 gains every year aren't good enough for you? Is that really a reasonable expectation?

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The irony of it all is that if we played it safe we'd probably still make over x2 gains per year. There are several trading strategies I plan on employing over the next year to help me become a more consistent gambler in this space.

Dollar-cost averaging

This is something that really everyone should be doing. Cost averaging is guaranteed to lower volatility in the long run. You'll make less money on lucky upswings, but much more importantly, you'll lose less money on unlucky downswings. My target for dollar-cost averaging is about one month at this point.

There are times in the market where I think I should be buying or selling, but not exactly sure when. The one month window usually works out pretty well, and you can time in some nice trades as the market moves. Just remember, don't spend it all in one trade! For me the rule is 25% max a week.

Never going all in.

We should always have a stable-coin or USD hedge to give us the wiggle room to play the market. I've gone all in way way too many times, and I've always regretted it. Having a stable hedge against the market is important for having the options to make trades, but the ultimate use-case in my opinion is to just have it there so you don't go on tilt.

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TILT

When you employ extremely risky mix/max strategy in the market you're going to get burned. When that happens, how will you react? Most people react very poorly and start making even worse decisions in the moment. It's the nasty domino effect of going on tilt, and should be avoided at all costs.

Never invest more than you're comfortable losing. We've all heard this 100 times, yet how many of us can actually say we've achieved this level of Zen when it comes to gambling on the market? Very few. For most, it's more of a goal than an actual thing that can be attained.

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Live in abundance.

Easier said than done, but if you live in abundance then you will never go on tilt. You've changed your mental state to one of contentment and security. If some of your investments fail, you're still good to go.

Again, most traders will never attain this state. No matter how much we have, we often find ourselves thirsting for more. Only the truly disciplined will be able to step back and say:

You know what, I have enough now. I should play this game even more safely.

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Conclusion

And play it safe, we should.

Imagine if the value of Bitcoin continues to double every year.

Let me give you a reminder:


2013201420152016201720182019
$100$200$400$800$1600$3200$6400


JanFebMarAprilMayJune
$3467$3733$4000$4267$4533$4800
JulyAugSeptOctNovDec
$5067$5333$5600$5867$6133$6400

Even if Bitcoin is increasing in value exponentially every year (2^x) since 2013 that puts it today at $5600.

Let that sink in a bit.

Lower your expectations of making 100x gains. You don't need them, and having that mindset will invariably cause us to make poor decisions based on greed and scarcity.

Thought experiment.

What if you knew that Bitcoin was doubling every year and you somehow managed to attain $40,000 worth of Bitcoin? Essentially, you'd be set for life, and so would anyone who listened to the merits of crypto and decentralization.

Does this sound possible to you? Honestly, it should. The technological advances humanity has made over the last few decades are more than enough to provide everyone with the resources they need.

It's the centralized distribution that sucks.

Fix the distribution, fix the world.

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While specializing is a good strategy in MMORPGs or seemingly in the economy, I (personally) find the exact opposite in real life.
I get more out of it if I try to understand more different areas instead of grinding and specializing in one.

Therefore I'm already at a point where I trust my knowledge about medicine and especially plants more than doctors..
I also gained a lot of elemental food and cooking knowledge. Cuz that's a way to process ur plants.
But you can also make tinctures for storing and dosing or salves for outter applying.
That really helped me with my muscle pain, tensions and cramps

There are so many plants, such a variety for everything. It really fascinates me how it just grows everywhere and you can process it to so fucking helpful stuff.

For example did you know about stinging nettle's medicinal benefits?
not only if u're ill. before also.
especially for vegan friends, who need plant proteine and vitamins.
stinging nettle seeds are just perfect for that and free ;)

the word weeds or Unkraut (in german: Kraut = herbs; un- is making it negative) are pure brain wash for me.
most people dont even know what these plants could do for them. if they knew they wouldn't kill em with glyphosate but be happy seeing em grow..

coming to an end: gaining knowledge about everything instead of specializing in one thing is helping you become more independent and also helps decentralizing.
It's all about knowledge.

regarding trading and your experimentation of different techniques; I'm not that happy about crypto that you have to be a trading pro...

If people come here (mass adoption and even before; now), it's because they had a paradigm change in their head and don't believe/ trust in centralization anymore.
and now they're supposed to trade with centralized stable coins, which are pegged to fiat, or again fiat?

lol fuck this greedyness.. I'm here cuz I want thinks to better, not good people to be conditionized with even worse behaviour..

and yea. I dunno about investing money in crypto..
I'm 21 had to quit my Abitur and am investing all my time into healing my body. Being pain free will feel so fucking good.
Better than BTC at 100k

I'm not able to work and earn money to invest anyways. And am investing my time into my body to be (hopefully fast; cuz the prices are rising) able to work and earn crypto.

And that takes much effort for me. Even more to learn to trade and not see all my work and effort (btc earnings) melt..
I came here cuz I hate fiat and their banking interest rate and inflation and the governments taxes..

but seems like a hard way for me to go

but I can say my pain is a good teacher. it made me learn and dive into so many things.

The volatility of crypto is an attack by the establishment.
They can't suppress the price down unless they manipulate it up first.
Fortunately there will soon™ be stable crypto assets that can be used instead of USD.
Any network can impose their own monetary policy.

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Just look at Maker. Wow, what a pretty crypto graph. Do we think it turned out this way randomly? It's obvious to me that the big stakeholders are regulating their own network. This will become the standard for a lot of coins.

1 accumulate as much btc and crypto as possible - NOW!
2 hodl until new ath / peak
3 sell for dubious new stable cryptos (which are not bound to fiat but are highly centralized/ ninja mined/ regulated/ whatever - for every flaw a stable coin)
4 loose most of ur wins cuz stable coin scams or government taxation
5 try to buy in BTC low again with the laughable rest of ur money to profit from the next bull cycle (you've learned a lot and will this time do it right! maybe the last time cuz there aint that big btc halvings anymore..)

I'm probably just going to use Dai for a stable coin.
Backed by Ethereum. Seems good enough for now.

Also, Litecoin just had it's first and biggest halving.
That's what I'm betting on in the short term.

There are so many plants, such a variety for everything.

It is just downright creepy how doctors say that diet and exercise is the most important part of anyone's health, yet none of them seem to know anything about the thousands of plants out there that could be helping us out for a cheap price.

If it's cheap and easy, the establishment doesn't want us to know about it.

#informationwar

Yes. You can't patent plants.

DMSO (made of tree bark) and MSM; Aloe arborescens (NOT vera/ barbadensis); devils claw; cannabis, camphor, curcuma helped me a lot

Love the talk about hedging and having some stable coin!

Yep, mindset is sooo important! That was a great gaming comparison! ;)

That's a nice reminder. The big test will be next year and the year after. A lot of past trends are going to be put to the test within the next 12 and 24 months.

Never forget to take profits lol.

I saw so many people laughing at those taking 10, 20, 30%, but whose laughing now as most cryptos are down 90%+.

Great reminder as well to keep an eye on the long term and not to worry as much about the short term losses.

For me 'take profits' is pretty much synonymous with 'increase stable hedge'.

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