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RE: Crime Math - Your Odds Of Being Murdered in Chicago
You are assuming independence while there most likely is a dependence. More informally, it might be the case that if you have been involved in a violent crime in the past then the probability of being involved in a violent crime in the future increases.
I would tend to agree with this but disentangling that would require a much longer post and the math would probably still be on shaky ground.
So yeah, don't be selling drugs on the street corner cause the murder rate for that profession is probably something like 30% per year.
Having said that for the murder rate, the overall violent crime rate (muggings, sex assault, assault) would be less dependent on your "profession" and more of a general population thing.
Fascinating topic though and a rabbit hole that might be worth going down one day.
Maybe you can get a better image if you looks at the data of 2011. -> http://home.chicagopolice.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2011-Murder-Report.pdf So almost 77 percent of the victims had prior arrest history (see page 40). So I think your result is a bit misleading.