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RE: Salmonella And Chicken Eggs

in #steemstem • 6 years ago

I enjoyed your article.

I'm curious if you found anything about regional effects. For example, in Japan it is considered healthy to eat raw eggs. Raw egg consumption is almost uniform in the population, for example, I used to eat breakfast at at fast food restaurant in Japan that served a raw egg with almost every meal. At this rate of consumption, a 1:20,000 ratio for contamination doesn't seem reasonable.

If someone consumes a raw egg with samonella, what is the probability of infection? If this had a reasonably low probability, say, 1%, this would bring the number of infections to 1 per 2,000,000 consumed eggs. This is almost reasonable, but we'd still anticipate about 6 infections per day in Tokyo.

6 years ago in #steemstem by
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     6 years ago 

    Assuming that only one egg out of 20 was contaminated with S. Enteritidis in each of the three positive samples, 0·0029% (95% CI 0·0025–0·0032) is the prevalence of S. Enteritidis of liquid eggs in Japan. This postulation appears reasonable because Salmonella egg contamination was not detected during a recent survey conducted by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) of Japan [5] which tested 20 300 eggs, making the rate less than 1/20 300. The prevalence of S. Enteritidis obtained from a 1990–1992 survey was 0·03% (7/26 400), and this decreased to about 0·003% (3/90 100) in a 2004 study

    In summary, the rate of S. Enteritidis contamination in commercial eggs is estimated at 0·003% following the Japan-wide surveillance. The decreased rate of S. Enteritidis egg contamination mirrors decreases in foodborne illness in humans due to Salmonella in Japan over this time. These decreases of Salmonella contamination could be the results of various approaches for Salmonella control from farm to table. To the best of our knowledge, the results of the present study provide the most recent dataset of the prevalence of S. Enteritidis in shell eggs at retail shops in Japan.

    (Source)

    The ratio of the rate of contamination of eggs (Salmonella-related) was estimated to be less than 1;23,000 ratio which is quite close to 1:20,000. The figure was actually a rough estimation and in Japan, food poisoning cases caused by Salmonella are greatly reduced due to the chicken vaccination program established by the local farmers. As you can see from the text I have quoted above, the prevalence of the disease has significantly dropped from 0.03% to 0.003% (1: 30,000) and then 0.0029% but the survey carried out by MAFF has revealed a completely different result (around 0.004%) thus I think the ratio of 1:20,000 eggs contamination is pretty reasonable.

    If someone consumes a raw egg with salmonella, what is the probability of infection?

    I'm honestly not sure. For a disease to be caused, 100,000 salmonella species need to successfully invade the mucous epithelium. It will depend on the host immune system. That's why infants and elderly people are prone to get this kind of infection due to either immature or reduced immune function

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