RE: US Capital Markets Review 5/11/18
The US equity markets continue to tread water, but watch out for the large-cap indexes, more than 40% of the components of the Dow and the S&P 500 are in a downtrend, and the indexes themselves are also in a downtrend. In the past 20 years, there have been four times when more than 40% of the components of an equity index in the US are trending down and the index is trending down, and the returns over the next 18 months have been around -15%. Caution is advised in the large caps, though this situation is reversed in small and mid-caps, and the Nasdaq has 45% of the components trending down, but the index itself is trending up due to a few components like Amazon and Microsoft leading the way. Pretty unhealthy market in the making, I'm not sure I would be fully invested at this point.