BTC - 08 March
A quick look at what BTC is doing
In the short-term BTC is channel bound within an ascending channel. It seems likely that this state of affairs will not continue for too much longer. I say that based on the length of similar channels in the recent past. I expect a sudden rise or dip before BTC forms a new channel with the same East-North-East price movement.
The chart below looks back about three weeks and shows how this East-North-East price movement has been prevalent in all major recent channels. It also shows how long the channel bound price movements remain intact for and the severity of the price hops between them.
It is difficult to predict if the next price jump will be upwards or downwards. I say “upwards” with 60% certainty based on:
- Climbing volume.
- The chart that comes after this one.
The chart below from “Bitcoin – The Future Becomes Clearer” is still my go to chart for medium-term BTC price movement prediction. It suggests that price may still have a little climbing to do in the short-term before dropping to the support level at $3600.
Of course much still depends on what the major stock markets end up doing this month. Things have only gotten worse there since I wrote this post. While I believe that the crypto markets may react positively to uncertain stock markets in the long-term, crypto markets are irrational beasts and could do anything in the short-term.
Yours in crypto
Bit Brain
All charts made by Bit Brain with TradingView
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Volumes continues to impress despite price indecision. However, I think for the first time in a while othet coins will lead and bitcoin will fall below 50% dominance as a confirmation.
Posted using Partiko iOS
Yes! I think there is a good chance of that! Normally BTC leads and the alts follow, but for several months the alts have moved faster than BTC and without a time delay. I'm very excited to see what happens. This is also why I dislike holding more than about 10% in BTC.
The short term bullish trend is clear but I think you are forgetting another trend line before the scenario you describe can play out.
It's the trend line that goes from about $11.5K to $8.5K to $6.4K
I'm looking at the daily/weekly chart for this
We've been rejected by it last rally to $4200 and we are there testing it a second time. Only if we break bullish from it your scenario may play out I think
I see the line of which you speak, but it really doesn't worry me because:
My projections show your resistance line breaking between 25 March and 5 April. Let's find out if I'm any good as an analyst...
The way I'm reading it, that line just broke (typical - I'm trying to buy and time is of the essence). That also means I'm a poor analyst since I only had it breaking after 25 March.
Yes, we seem to have broken it. It's certainly made me more bullish than before.
It's still a kind of 50/50 situation for a while now. I won't be truly convinced until we break 6K, even if that takes the better part of the year to break.
Still, I have been accumulating slowly for a while now.
Crossing fingers!
Glad to hear it.
Right now I'm scared of what may be a bull flag - I need a price drop so that I can buy!