RE: Bitcoin (BTC) Evening Update: Mean Reversion
False information.
First of all, 2 std is top 97.6% and 3 std is stop 99.7% since "top" means cumulative.
Second, it is wrong to say that current price is 3 std "departure" from the mean... since bollinger band simply calculates new mean after every price change, thus it always measures 2 std away from the mean.
Since the price is crashing without making a spike back up, the std deviation is getting smaller, meaning the volatility is decreasing, thus, the bollinger band would simply constrict and indicate decreasing volatility in price. Contrary to your statement, Bollinger band does not predict that the price will spike up but only a small spike, if there will be any.
I suggest you re-touch up on your statistics and stop spreading false information.
Exactly. Bollinger only predicts a retrace to the current (ever updated) mean nothing more and it is not certain under such conditions. it works like charm in "calm" markets and sideways movements. But seeing that all the green candles are hammered down like crazy, no reason to expect a serious bounce and trend reversal till the next major support line!
Lest hope it bounces from 5.6 k range or more sent the slaughterhouse by haejin!!!!