Bitcoin (BTC) Evening Update: Mean Reversion
SUMMARY
Standard Deviations show the distance from the mean or the square root of the variance. The below bell curve should be quite familiar to most. When a data point is at the 2 std dev level, it's hitting top 13.6%; when at 3 std dev; then it's at the upper tier of 2.1% such that it's above 97.9% from the mean. In other words, such extreme departures away from the mean is not sustainable.
Here is Bitcoin (BTC) where the Bollinger Bands measure to 2 std dev levels. As price is well outside the lower blue line; it has clearly exceeded the 2 std dev and approaching 3 std dev. This level of departure away from the mean is not sustainable. Being at 2.1% means that mean reversion is likely.
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REPLY to THIS to Avoid auto downvote from the -18 troll!
Outsmart the Obtuse!
BTFD!
You really calm the waters. Thank you for all your work. This is what im doing instead of looking at the charts. Alot better for my mental, emotional and Financial health.
해진선생님,, 비트코인이 이제 바닥이라는 말씀이시죠?아직 말씀하신 6500달러선에서 반등할거라는 추측이 유효한가요?
Since berniesanders is trolling over and over I jus reported him. Getting to be ridiculous as he copy pastes the same shit over and over. So you think we can get to 1300 max? Click play on this chart: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/fbMl8lil-Model-of-Economic-Bubbles/
Crypto is not in a bubble yet, not even close. If BTC drops below 5500 I would consider it to be on purpose by those with more power.
yeah just like i assumed, there is something fishy about all of this, suddenly everyone bans cryto again, trading, exchanges, wall street takes a dip as well. leaders of the world are accusing to another that one is stealing through our communities technology, someone wants power again, a man with power will not let go of his power without a fight
I hope your graph is incorrect, if it falls back to below $1k that would be devastating
Why This Might Be The Bottom: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@investingtips/pivotal-time-for-cryptos-no-click-bait
Snap back coming!!
I appreciate all you do. Thanks for the updates.
Probable reversal soon but 5300 first :)
Thank you as always!
Who knows how long these incredible prices will last!
be careful of greed my friend, it is the reason we are in this mess in the first place.
I've been greedy when others have been fearful, and fearful when others have been greedy, which is why I'm not worried about this correction.
Hey haejin you real cute bro, no homo
@haejin i am a newbie. In simple words, should i buy now or wait for more lower low? what is the average price we are expecting for reversal.
you should wait, but follow the news and follow the trend. look at charts on tradingview.com where you also can follow haejin, and most importantly look at BTC charts for atleast 1h or 4h charts to see the whole picture of it. buying now could be an investment, but if it drops to 5k or even 4k it could have been an early impulsive buy IMHO .
Strongly recommend laddering your buys as @haejin suggest. What it means is never spent all your capital in one buy, segregate it into smaller chunks. So if you have $500, you can divide it into 4 parts of $150 each and buy Bitcoins at 4 different price levels. You can find his tutorial on that topic. All the best.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/an-effective-buying-and-selling-strategy-laddering-a-tutorial-on-to-cast-a-ladder
If you're a newbie you should probably wait until the graph flattens out. Disclaimer: This is not investment advice;)
dont go all in.
Can you please translate for us simpletons Haejin? Lol
Thankyou!
Translation is that the downtrend can't last forever. It should stop falling soon.
thanks, I thought that's what he meant but wasn't sure if he was talking about the uptrend or the downtrend.
I was new into trading a few months ago. 65% of what I have learned is from Haejin. If you do your own analysis and don't depend completely on @Haejin, you will do very well in your trades. Remember, Haejin chooses the most probable pathway, but it isnt the only one. He cannot be looking at every coin every second and spoon feeding you.
I agree. Bravo for sharing your thougts, Haejin.
@Bernie and whom it may concern.
This scammy piece of shit's post makes more sense than yours, you just want some recognition and I must say it is working out for you, talking about scam that exactly what you are doing instead of posting good content to attract followers you want to use Haejin's platform to achieve that, Now whose actions are scarmy?
I have some advice for you guys stop being a Parasites and get your brains doing something good.
@haejin ,all my ladder were filled. Do you think I need to put few extra fiat to cast more?
does anyone know what this means?
Timely and poignant analysis, Mr. Lee. Thank you for your insight!
Hi :)
Ok... You were right. A leading diagonal. i can see the 5s now! Except one... how do you count that as a 5?
Well, it may go lower... but I just Bought TFD.
Wait what? the -18 troll?
Thank you for the info! Cheers
nice post..just upvoted it
Come on up bitcoin! Nothing will go down forever. :)
thats the spirit
thanks for the good,info heajin.
and to berniesanders,your life must be so awesome,you troll people for kicks???
hopefully one day,u pea-brained tosser,u will grow some hairs on those
little balls of yours,and maybe leave your room without your mom holding your hand
and find a life worth living.
tx
I wish you had of taken other indicators seriously when we were nearing the top. I remember a video you made saying don't bother with them, they will just make you confused.
Maybe incorporate some MA's, BB's and TD next ;)
What does it mean? Does it mean it will collapse?
okok, but the fear is the same...
@haejin, let it go. Bitcoin is dead!
Public opinion is stacked against BTC now as people have lost a lot of money. It's still parabolic but in the wrong direction.
I firmly think that a reversion is on the way.. But surely we could apply this to bitcoin when it was skyrocketing up. I kind of think that bitcoin has the particularity to stay far away from the square roots for long periods of time.
But I hope this proves true when deviating to the downside :P
Thanks again Haejin, after i grab my coffee, i read your updates THEN i kiss my wife in the morning lo. Priorities.
13 minutes and they haven't pounced yet...
Thanks Haejin!
Wow... amazing. So Bitcoin price will be pulled and stuck around the mean.
So big investors are giving up? (Capitulation)
Then we go through the despair stage. That is not pretty.
that it is wrong for someone to be dumping our comments as spam
@haejin Have you read this https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@xexylol/bitcoin-a-bubble-a-ponzi-and-an-environmental-disaster-for-the-head-of-the-bank-of-central-banks , what is your opinion ?
Thanx for the update
Can you translate for us noobies Haejin?
Thanks for the analysis. Seems it is only going up in the long term.
the market is crashing . hodl
DEAR NEWCOMERS BEWARE!!!!
According to the argument Haejin presents here no market should ever crash no bubble should ever pop! But we do know that they DO! So be careful! We are at the verge of experiencing a bubble pop scenario (I know everyone hates the bubble argument but still). Anyone filling ladders at this stage is taking an immense risk. We seem to be heading for 4K and 2.5K is not out of the question. Curb your greed and FOMO!!!! Lower lows are most probably coming! 5.6K will be decisive. Take no action before a serious bounce from that resistance!
The only saving part is Crypto runs 10X faster than established markets so just be patient if you value your money and not simply gambling for life changing gains.
Hahahaha
Good one, ha ha
False information.
First of all, 2 std is top 97.6% and 3 std is stop 99.7% since "top" means cumulative.
Second, it is wrong to say that current price is 3 std "departure" from the mean... since bollinger band simply calculates new mean after every price change, thus it always measures 2 std away from the mean.
Since the price is crashing without making a spike back up, the std deviation is getting smaller, meaning the volatility is decreasing, thus, the bollinger band would simply constrict and indicate decreasing volatility in price. Contrary to your statement, Bollinger band does not predict that the price will spike up but only a small spike, if there will be any.
I suggest you re-touch up on your statistics and stop spreading false information.
Exactly. Bollinger only predicts a retrace to the current (ever updated) mean nothing more and it is not certain under such conditions. it works like charm in "calm" markets and sideways movements. But seeing that all the green candles are hammered down like crazy, no reason to expect a serious bounce and trend reversal till the next major support line!
Lest hope it bounces from 5.6 k range or more sent the slaughterhouse by haejin!!!!
Thanks.