Bitcoin officially labeled "Most crowded trade on the planet", but does that mean it's going to go down?
Bitcoin is now considered the most crowded investment in the world.
According to a research assessment put out by a Bank of America Merrill Lynch Fund Managers survey, the sentiment surrounding Bitcoin is at extreme levels, in fact it is at more extreme levels then any other investment in the world.
Kinda hard to believe given the latest news out of China huh?
According to their metrics, Bitcoin recently passed both long the Nasdaq stock index and shorting the US dollar as previous overly crowded trades.
How was the survey conducted?
The Bank of America Merrill survey is considered one of the best by Wall Street and one of the most followed.
The survey took place last week and ended Thursday.
It surveyed over 200 Fund Managers that had at least $600 Billion under management.
Basically, the goal of the survey is to talk to the who's who of global finance and get their opinion.
Bitcoin got 26% of the votes for the most crowded, while long the Nasdaq and shorting the dollar got 22% and 21% of the votes respectively.
Does this mean that Bitcoin is going to immediately tank?
No!
Shorting the US dollar has been one of the most overly crowded trades for a while now and has had strong returns over the last year.
Same with the Nasdaq.
The implications are that any time you get too many people on one side of a trade, it doesn't take much to disrupt the apple cart and get people running for the hills as prices reverse, often dramatically.
That and also when a trade becomes overly crowded it often reverses simply because there is no one left to buy.
My take away:
These guys may be the brightest of the bright, but they don't really understand the implications behind Bitcoin. Yes the price may correct and that is fine, I will buy more, but we are talking about an entire industry transformation much more akin to the development of the internet than a beanie baby or tulip mania.
This isn't about money flocking to a popular asset, it is more akin to money trying to invest in the internet in the 90's.
Bitcoin is likely to play a major role in this transformation going forward, although there is no guarantee that it will be The Cryptocurrency in the future, it is very likely to be at the table.
For that reason I would't and don't put much stock in this survey. I think the short term sentiment is actually pretty negative around crypto assets right now and though I think it can certainly get worse, I am much more apt to buy right now than sell...
Stay informed my friends.
Sources:
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/12/bitcoin-is-the-most-crowded-investment-in-the-world-right-now.html
Image Sources:
https://futureoflife.org/2016/12/30/2016-actually-year-hope/
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"most crowded trade..." What utter bullshit! How could it be? It has a market cap well under 100 billion!!! These a hole analysts are working for the system that is responsible for 217 trillion in global debt!
This ain't gonna' end well for those who listen to the big banks with regards to bitcoin. Even the Jaime Dimon schnarffle-barfffle today is obviously delivered on the heels of the China Dim-sum-brain-trust that published even more bullshit -- just to get it to go down -- and probably so they can buy. It's a page torn out of their Comex playbook. Don't be fooled; and for the love of god just buy 1 bitcoin.
Bitcoin is the undisputed champion of global finance by any metric that is delivered with just the correct facts.
Bitcoin is dead! Long Live Bitcoin!
Cheers! from @thedamus
I think we'll see something that will make most people loose interest again. Possibly some sort of price correction or crash. However, we will also see the price return quite quickly, just without so much volume. It will then take some time again before people get interested again.
The ultimate way is up anyway. But at some point we just run into the situation that there will be too much anticipation of everything crashing and that alone will force prices to settle.
Cryptocurrency is no where near what it will be, but markets can't rise for ever. They also need a breather. I doubt cryptocurrency is any different.
Agree totally, it seems like we are in the breathing phase and thats alright. We need this.
yes, a little breathe for the markets is good. Some people taking profits, some will be entering their positions.
Also if BTC will go down and stay low for a while, remember there are many other cryptos with very good qualities. And the train is already moving fast, so continuing evolution of those other coins will expand further (Ethereum, Dash, Monero, Litecoin, Ripple etc...).
Also if you know economics, and you are good at maths you can take a huge advantage of such price fluctuations BTC vs other cryptos....
Agreed, especially in the ethereum space there is a lot going on right now. The Hardfork in September, Raiden is getting to the developers right now, everyday there are ICO´s (which is not really a good thing in my view). But like you said it, there is a lot going on.
Great comment. I agree 100%. After all, Bitcoin has died roughly 27 times already. ;)
Haha, that's true :)
Interesting, it's amazing how far bitcoin has gone and many other cryptocurrencies along side it. Should've jumped the band-wagon while i had the chance. Anyways, great and informative post!
Just the fact that you are using a new alpha version of a social media network which is completely run by a blockchain should be a big sign for you that the band-wagon is still waiting for you.
I'm sure there still a little ways for the Bitcoin bandwagon to go! (up that is)
I hear you. If I could just go back in time about a year I'd be rich, but I guess if I could just go back in time last week and buy the current power ball number I'd be rich as well. ;)
I know next to nothing about Bitcoin, but any survey with Bank of America Merrill tied to it, frankly I couldn't trust it further than i could spit. And I don't spit very well either.
Great article! Now is the best time to buy when so many people are spreading FUD. It's starting to get old and people are finally realizing that it's all #Fakenews. I'm using this opportunity to get coins at a cheap price myself :)
If not bitcoin than other cryptocurrency will do. The future of bank transfers is slowly getting to an end.
Maybe it will be a stablecoin in the future. Makerdao is trying to achieve this. (have a look at makerdao.com)
In my opinion, Bitcoin will go up again. The reason is why it is disconnected from the monetary policies of the various Central Banks and this makes it a currency free from manipulations
But chinese miners are having the highest percentage of mining-power right now. I am sure they are using this power to manipulate bitcoin.
Yes, it's the truth. But It's interests of the same miners to keep bitcoin free from manipulation to ensure that its value increases in in the coming years.
Are you sure? Did you hear about the new Bitcoin cash? Those miners like to manipulate the market.
Ok, you are right again, but we have to focus if we are talking about long/medium or short term. I'm talking about long term, the crash you are talking about is a normal fluctuation in the long term period.
Good writing. Bitcoin and others are having a correction as we speak!
I'm seeing the price going down to around $3600. My chart analysis: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@jdruiter/bitcoin-price-analysis-12-09-2017-100-steem-power