RE: Technical Analysis on Bitcoin: Looking for the Bottom
I think what we're seeing is a repeat of 2013 - 2014 mania blow off phase that will last more than a year. I think that an 87% correction from last December's high is possible sometime in 2019. This is similar to what Tone Vays has said, but I believe for different reasons. After the halving of 2020, bitcoin will moon again, this time much higher than $20K.
What we saw last December was an attempt at mass adoption, but the technology wasn't ready yet. This pattern will repeat until the technology can finally support the users who want to use the platform. This means that another bearish phase may return in 2022 if the technology isn't ready yet for mass adoption.
Once crypto (not necessarily bitcoin) replaces the banking system (hopefully not national centralized crypto), that's when mass adoption will render volatility practically nonexistent. At that point we won't be measuring the worth of crypto in dollars, but in the dominant crypto prevalent at the time.
You may be right, although I don’t believe it’ll take that long. The difference between 2013-2014 and today is, everyone is aware of crypto and we have endless competition within the crypto space. Everyone wants to become the go to crypto you’re referring to. Technology is moving exponentially faster than it was for many reasons. The obvious is, we just have better tech to create better tech. But that aside, we now have consumer awareness on top of countless cryptocurrencies competing with each other. This alone is driving innovation at a rate we’ve never seen before. Think about where we were 2 years ago and imagine where we’ll be next year. Bitcoin was the lone crypto in 2013-2014. Things have exploded in the last year.
The SEC is soon going to lay out regulatory guidelines that'll weed out many of the “scam coins” (to use Vay's words). This will leave only the real competitors left in the space. Once there are clear regulatory guidelines, I believe we’ll see a large amount of money enter the market. People want to know the rules before playing the game. Once they have those rules, I suspect those on the fence will make the jump. It’ll be slow at first, but at some point start to snowball.
So while a completely agree with your analysis, I don’t know if I agree with the timeline. I think the tech will be more than ready by next year, it’s just matter of the world being ready for the tech. At the current rate of govt spending, we’re going to see a major move away from fiat and into other assets...crypto being one of them. We’re already see that in many other countries like Venezuela. Time will tell. It’s certainly an interesting show to watch! ;-)