Fact Or Fud? Will The Bear Market Continue?
Ever since the crazy bull run in 2017 we have been witnessing a grueling bear market so far this year. What I find interesting is that so many people take it for granted that there will be another bull run coming soon. Now the question is why do all these people think so ?
If we look at the graph of Bitcoin, which also reflects the overall state of all cryptocutrency, how much of the graph is consisting of a bull market ?
The fact is that the first big bull run that most recall happened in September 2013.
The spike was very sudden and went from around 100 dollar per Bitcoin to above 1000 dollar per Bitcoin in November the same year.
So in only three months Bitcoin increased by a thousand percent or 10x if you prefer.
But what is scary is that after this bull run there was a terrible bear market for more than three years, just look at the charts.
I don’t want to spread FUD or be negative, but in the same time I think it’s imporrant not to blindly listen to what everyone is saying.
At the peak of the latest crazy bull run you could go anywhere on the web and there would be videos and information of how Bitcoin will go to a million and that there is no stop to this bull market and it is not not the beginning.
Yet here we are, what goes up must come down, that is only natural. But if you have followed most forecasts of the Bitcoin analyzers on Steemit and YouTube, almost all thought that Bitcoin wouldn’t drop below 10 000 USD but would continue its bull run with 10 K as support.
Once this line was breached is seemed like a lot of these bullish people and their video posts disappeared over night. All the people that could swear we would continue sky high did some posts about the ultimate crash and how we are now in a bear market.
So what can we learn from that ? We can learn that it is much easier and more effective to post good bullish news than bearish. Nothing attracts more views and listeners than the sound of potential money raining in.
So to summarize things I think it’s important to be objective and create your own picture of how the market will develop by also analyzing the past. So what do I believe will happen? I think that the besr market might go on a little bit longer than what some expect. That’s why I have also changed my game plan. I focus on the coins that have more value than just the psychological market value. I look for coins with actual function and instrinsic value. Tokens that can be utilized and that have the technology to change things. So many coins are just a form of money based on blockchain technology. But there are already thousands of these around and maybe even more that have already become dead coins. So for me the focus on coins like Steem for example, where the development is happening daily and thus increasing the usage and the value of the Steem blockchain, plus the best part about holding this coin is that I can increase my holding even if the market is going down, so if the market becomes bullish this year or next or the year after, it is almost preferable for me if it doesn’t happen to fast because then i have more time to build up my Stake in Steem.
This is not financial advice, and I’m definitely not a professional advisor, this is just my humble opinion and nothing more.
Yup. It could easily be years before the next bull run, further falls and then stagnation likely imo.
Of course, I'd be really happy for this not to happen, but history does tend to repeat itself :)
It definitely tends to repeat itself - either way, so much is happening all the time, so in this aspect the market doesn’t feel dead during the bear market, and it will be interesting to follow along with all the developments
I remind myself, when it comes to Steemit, that it ought to be fun. If a person sees it as income, or an investment only, they are not having much fun right now. Just make it fun. That is my two cents opinion (now worth one cent.)
Haha Great answer, but it’s true, I agree a hundred percent !
Why is it that an emerging tech like crypto is taking so long to correct? isn't crypto becoming more legitimate than ever? by definition crypto is supposed to be high tech, futuristic, efficient etc, and yet we are talking about multi-year bear markets...well i have been investing in the stock market for over 20yrs and there have hardly been multi-year bear markets even in stocks, so to say this bear market could last years is ridiculous and just means that crypto is finished....crypto either starts recovering this year or its over, completely over and going to zero. 7-months is already a ridiculously long bear market, it should not take that long for a rapidly evolving technology that is not even new. Everyone is pointing to good news of cyrpto's legitimacy and adopting and yet someone okay with projecting bear markets like the past, this is not the past, just like you will never see % increases of the past (impossible), we should also not see long bear markets like in the past....there has been 100x more crypto activity/news in the past few months than the past 10yrs.
Well of course I hope it will go up, but I’m not sure it’s going to happen this year like others propose. Overall I think the technology is revolutionizing, but not even internet changed the world in an instant.
It's just crazy to think that it will behave as it did in the past when so much has changed, looking to past performance is useless , if that were the case then everyone could predict the future and markets would not exist. Charts do not simply repeat over time, especially when things are changing every day in this environment. I got in last Dec, which was the worst time in the history of crypto to get into the market and i'm sitting on huge losses, if there isn't a recovery this year then I will sell and stay out for good. If crypto is so great and revolutionary and is the future then it won't remain in a bear market for much longer, but until then, all the FUD is well deserved because the proof is in the price. everyone posts good news on crypto everyday, but to me it's not good news it's bad news because it means that crypto remains down despite good news, which is a bad sign.
Only time will give us the answer.
HI, @dandesign86, all that you say is very true. People often forget to look at the past and also some cycles that are repeating from time to time. Steem is a good coin whatever people say, we can grow our stake when many coins don't give you anything. I see in my group some people buying a coin at its highest price because of not looking at the charts but instead listening to a guy with an agenda. Today if they were a little more into the reading of the market they would have 2/3rd more of their stake. I encourage you to make more article like that budy :)
Thanks a lot buddy ! I do enjoy making these kinds of posts and with your encouragement I will try to make more - Cheers !
great post sir.
All we are seeing in 2018 is a large and slow recorrection from the run of late 2017 - so many clueless people entered the market in 2017 who didnt even know the first thing about crypto but bought in because it was the buzz word - no those people are leaving and it will become a bit more stable - might take a while though!
Yes it will definitely become more stable soon which is really good
I don't think so mate. May clueless people leave; the thing is who buys their cryptos. Are current whales growing bigger or new whales showing up? In both cases, if those cryptos not seperated homogeneously, stability problem will keep going. Maybe grow bigger. This is the main problem of every market with huge capital holders. They can practically make everything.
without those clueless people and many millions more of them, crypto has no future whatsoever and the price will only go down.
I'll take a guess and say that bitcoin bounces above $10,000 within the next 3 months
It's almost like some people are optimistic and some are pessimistic... Like.... people have different opinions or something.
In the end I think it’s important to make up ones own mind, but it’s definitely not easy