Diversification Case Study 1: Top 100 in a Year (2017-2018)
Last year, I wrote about diversification. I did the math and showed an 11x gain for the top 100 from July 2016-July 2017, represented by turning $10k into $110k . People were adamant that the opportunity to do that had passed. Bears in July 2017.
The post inspired people, I've even been sent a link to my own post a few times, which was super weird.
This post is not an update to that post, but instead a report on what would've happened if you'd done the same thing when I posted it, even though I cautioned that prior returns are no guarantee of future returns.
I asked a few groups if they thought this post or last year's post would be higher, and there wasn't a clear consensus. There seemed to be two clear schools of thought though, those in crypto for 18 months or more felt more recently would win, while those newer think they missed the boat.
This data is sourced from CoinMarketCap's historical snapshots of 7/2/2017 and 7/1/2018
| # | Name | Ticker | 2017 Price | 2018 Price | $100 is Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bitcoin | BTC | $2425.92 | $6377.87 | $262.91 |
| 2 | Ethereum | ETH | $270.49 | $453.98 | $167.84 |
| 3 | Ripple | XRP | $0.253292 | $.458594 | $181.05 |
| 4 | Litecoin | LTC | $38.60 | $80.30 | $208.03 |
| 5 | Ethereum Classic | ETC | $17.49 | $15.95 | $91.19 |
| 6 | NEM | XEM | $0.148691 | $0.163339 | $109.85 |
| 7 | Dash | DASH | $167.25 | $235.67 | $140.91 |
| 8 | IOTA | MIOTA | $0.386489 | $1.02 | $263.91 |
| 9 | Monero | XMR | $40.90 | $130.78 | $319.76 |
| 10 | Bitshares | BTS | $0.2119917 | $0.139632 | $65.89 |
| 11 | Stratis | STRAT | $5.55 | $2.63 | $47.39 |
| 12 | Zcash | ZEC | $279.34 | $166.08 | $59.45 |
| 13 | Bytecoin | BCN | $0.00228 | $0.002966 | $130.09 |
| 14 | Steem | STEEM | $1.57 | $1.65 | $105.10 |
| 15 | NEO | NEO | $7.36 | $30.42 | $413.32 |
| 16 | Golem | GNT | $0.439198 | $0.349354 | $79.54 |
| 17 | Waves | WAVES | $3.63 | $2.89 | $79.61 |
| 18 | Bitconnect | BCC | $50.26 | $0.451364 | $0.8980581 |
| 19 | Siacoin | SC | $0.012252 | $0.010534 | $85.98 |
| 20 | Gnosis | GNO | $290.83 | $44.11 | $128.29 |
| 21 | Iconomi | ICN | $3.29 | $.624188 | $18.97 |
| 22 | Augur | REP | $24.37 | $35.32 | $144.93 |
| 23 | Dogecoin | DOGE | $0.002387 | $0.002507 | $105.02 |
| 24 | Lisk | LSK | $2.31 | $5.38 | $232.9 |
| 25 | Stellar | XLM | $0.023927 | $0.194298 | $812.04 |
| 26 | Tether | USDT | $1.02 | $0.999243 | $97.97 |
| 27 | Byteball | GBYTE | $811.49 | $113.73 | $14.01 |
| 28 | MaidSafeCoin | MAID | $0.431162 | $0.3313328 | $76.85 |
| 29 | GameCredits | GAME | $3.02 | $0.639929 | $21.19 |
| 30 | Factom | FCT | $21.64 | $9.02 | $41.68 |
| 31 | Ardor | ARDR | $0.184536 | $0.146084 | $79.16 |
| 32 | Veritaseum | VERI | $83.07 | $49.53 | $59.62 |
| 33 | Komodo | KMD | $1.54 | $1.54 | $100 |
| 34 | DigixDAO | DGD | $77.09 | $96.54 | $125.23 |
| 35 | Decred | DCR | $28.66 | $66.68 | $232.66 |
| 36 | Status | SNT | $0.042327 | $0.067923 | $160.47 |
| 37 | Digibyte | DGB | $0.015251 | $0.0255310 | $167.41 |
| 38 | Nxt | NXT | $0.132635 | $0.095447 | $71.96 |
| 39 | Basic Attention Token | BAT | $0.128036 | $0.241251 | $188.42 |
| 40 | PIVX | PIVX | $2.16 | $1.97 | $91.20 |
| 41 | FirstBlood | 1ST | $1.31 | $0.158178 | $12.07 |
| 42 | SingularDTV | SNGLS | $0.170133 | $0.035623 | $20.94 |
| 43 | MCAP | MCAP | $4.58 | $0.048039 | $1.05 |
| 44 | MobileGo | MGO | $1.33 | $0.191904 | $14.43 |
| 45 | BitcoinDark | BTCD | $63.95 | $51.75 | $80.92 |
| 46 | Bancor | BNT | $2.67 | $2.96 | $110.86 |
| 47 | Syscoin | SYS | $0.144383 | $0.177149 | $122.69 |
| 48 | Aragon | ANT | $2.19 | $1.88 | $85.84 |
| 49 | Lykke | LKK | $0.351665 | $0 | $0 |
| 50 | Numeraire | NMR | $45.59 | $6.97 | $15.28 |
| 51 | Peercoin | PPC | $2.23 | $1.37 | $61.43 |
| 52 | Emercoin | EMC | $1.31 | $2.73 | $208.40 |
| 53 | Ubiq | UBG | $1.42 | $0.835472 | $58.84 |
| 54 | LEOcoin | LEO | $0.593072 | $0.135601 | $22.86 |
| 55 | Ark | ARK | $0.513851 | $1.40 | $272.45 |
| 56 | Round | ROUND | $0.057488 | $0 | $0 |
| 57 | Nexus | NXS | $0.916936 | $1.21 | $131.96 |
| 58 | Asch | XAS | $0.589457 | $0.482362 | $81.83 |
| 59 | ReddCoin | RDD | $0.001482 | $0.004987 | $336.50 |
| 60 | iExec RLC | RLC | $0.526402 | $0.714415 | $135.72 |
| 61 | Edgeless | EDG | $0.501927 | $0.3116690 | $62.09 |
| 62 | Melon | MLN | $67.90 | $27.88 | $41.06 |
| 63 | Cloakcoin | CLOAK | $7.91 | $3.78 | $47.79 |
| 64 | Monacoin | MONA | $0.752031 | $2.08 | $276.58 |
| 65 | OBITS | OBITS | $2.33 | $.19175 | $8.23 |
| 66 | Verge | XVG | $0.002767 | $0.023117 | $835.45 |
| 67 | Elastic | XEL | $0.471456 | $0.135482 | $28.74 |
| 68 | Synereo | AMP | $0.4254680 | $0.106979 | $25.14 |
| 69 | Wings | WINGS | $0.385216 | $210606 | $54.67 |
| 70 | Namecoin | NMC | $2.34 | $1.32 | $56.41 |
| 71 | Storjcoin X | STORJ | $0.668035 | $0.639683 | $95.76 |
| 72 | LBRY Credits | LBC | $0.487503 | $0.099296 | $20.37 |
| 73 | Quantum Resistant Ledger | QRL | $0.637997 | $0.486954 | $76.33 |
| 74 | vSlice | VSL | $0.984775 | $0.066324 | $6.73 |
| 75 | Gulden | NLG | $0.093868 | $0.071088 | $75.73 |
| 76 | Xaurum | XAUR | $0.241636 | $0.044616 | $18.46 |
| 77 | Bitbay | BAY | $0.029373 | $0.022656 | $77.13 |
| 78 | Counterparty | XCP | $11.09 | $7.59 | $68.44 |
| 79 | Etheroll | DICE | $4.11 | $1.12 | $27.25 |
| 80 | BlackCoin | BLK | $0.374802 | $0.125718 | $33.54 |
| 81 | Viacoin | VIA | $1.23 | $1.07 | $86.99 |
| 82 | Zcoin | XZC | $11.26 | $15.01 | $133.30 |
| 83 | Mysterium | MYST | $1.39 | $0.167686 | $12.06 |
| 84 | Peerplays | PPY | $7.26 | $3.48 | $47.93 |
| 85 | Burst | BURST | $0.014622 | $0.014631 | $100.06 |
| 86 | Omni | OMNI | $46.95 | $17.01 | $36.23 |
| 87 | Humaniq | HMQ | $0.158829 | $0.078271 | $49.28 |
| 88 | Vertcoin | VTC | $0.656644 | $0.871079 | $132.66 |
| 89 | Blocknet | BLOCK | $6.06 | $13.97 | $230.53 |
| 90 | YbCoin | YBC | $7.75 | $0 | $0 |
| 91 | Quantum | QUA | $0.283004 | $0.144749 | $51.15 |
| 92 | TokenCard | TKN | $0.969032 | $0.99476 | $103.14 |
| 93 | Agoras Tokens | AGRS | $.541025 | $0 | $0 |
| 94 | Earth Coin | EAC | $0.0024140 | $0 | $0 |
| 95 | Grid Coin | GRC | $.0548520 | $0.024292 | $44.29 |
| 96 | Storj | STORJ | $0.502945 | $0.480727 | $95.58 |
| 97 | WeTrust | TRST | $0.22552 | $0.044598 | $19.77 |
| 98 | E-Dinar Coin | EDR | $0.022675 | $0.012494 | $55.10 |
| 99 | Skycoin | SKY | $3.48 | $5.91 | $169.83 |
| 100 | NavCoin | NAV | $0.325412 | $0.453774 | $139.45 |
| Total | $11,000.10 |
Insights
I noted a few things while going through this data. Some of these were surprising for me.
The Top 100 Made 10%.
This is underwhelming in crypto but is good in two ways. First, as a market, 10% is still pretty good growth for a year, when we're 7 months into a bear market. Second, more reasonable returns reassure traditional investment money, with 20% of firms looking to enter crypto within 6 months, we're poised for an influx of fiat and showing solid returns.
It Was 26.3 Times More Profitable to Hold Bitcoin
This doesn't count the forks or airdrops, just purely Bitcoin. With returns of 262.9%, Bitcoin is still King. Sure, market cap dominance has taken a hit, but overall Bitcoin is still rocking the first mover advantage. Many like to point out the tech
Likelihood of Profitability Decreases Significantly Throughout the List
In the top 10, there were just 2 losers. The top 10 made 81.13%
In the top 20, there were 8 losers. The top 20 made 47.05%.
In the top 50, there were 25 losers. The top 50 made 24.94%.
Different Than 2017 Results
In 2017, we were firmly in a bull market. Now, we're in a bear market. Last year, the big winners were throughout the top 100. This year they're not. This is partially because of a phenomenon known as "flight to quality", with the bear market occurring, people choose projects that are less speculative and more secure.
Also, this Top 100 from July 2017 was before the big ICO boom really got going and removed some of the barriers to creating a project. ICO's and new projects make up a significant part of the 2018 Top 100, and many aren't on this list because they didn't exist in 2017. Without ERC20 tokens, the 2018 list would be closer to this one.
The Highpoints Were Far More
On nearly every coin on the list, there were much more profitable points than the snapshot of 1 year, which means, like I found last year, a year is not the most profitable time frame for this strategy.
The Biggest Gainer was #66
Verge as the largest gainer was a huge surprise for me, but once I thought about it, I spent last year trading it between 40 and 120 satoshis, this year, I shake my head everytime I see the price. With a Pornhub partnerhship and countless security issues, I may dislike this project, but it proves that "any press is good press" in the crypto world.
Cryppick Shoutout
I'm working on additional data for my Cryppick members, they'll be getting access to more details and insights, including answers to questions like:
"What time frames were most profitable for this strategy?"
"When would rebalancing have been most effective for significantly more profit?"
"What other indicators would've been helpful in eliminating the losers prior to significant losses/locking in profits?"
"What are these results but in satoshi value?"
"What are the results with forks and airdrops?"
If you're interested in these answers, more exclusive research, due diligence reports, crypto courses and more, join now! There are only 8 spots left for the July cohort at www.cryppick.com!
I say 20%! But that's a wild guess actually. I do expect a much bigger gain before the end of 2018, but for a whole year? I dunno.
Right? It's super hard, knowing that Bitcoin went nearly 10x but ended up landing at 2.6x is sort of jarring :)
As always, great content from Ash.
Thanks Halo :)
bitshares, steem, golem and peerplays are the same code base!
Thank yo for this informative post.
Thanks @bobinson! :)
Excellent work with this list Ash! Thanks for putting it together.
Thanks @firepower :)
I found the differences between this and last year's post quite interesting!
If you find yourself with some extra time, can you put together a comparison for Bitcoin from 2010 until now?
Would make an interesting case study to observe it over a longer time frame. Maybe price comparison at the beginning of each year and 1st July from it's earliest of days and revisit the post a year from now. :)
Ping me if you do it. Thanks
Thanks for the suggestion but I've got a full schedule. :)
Great article! :D great research :D
Thanks @boxmining! :)
For me the only reasonable prediction is to look at long term trends, say multiple years, and expect it to follow that trajectory.
There will be another period of fomo, but one can expect as more saavy investors come into the market they will work the market. So one may expect the market to move mostly sideways with a slight uptrend over the course of a year.
That said, I hope it does much better than that.
It's definitely important to zoom out (and I have a large post on that on Facebook), but understanding data in smaller time periods is helpful too.
I've been in crypto for 5 years, so these speed bumps don't really bother me much, I just like seeing what the data shows and drawing insights from it :)
Keep on keeping on!