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RE: Crypto - Is the party about to begin again?
I was 150% confident that this would happen earlier this year, but now I wonder if we'll see an anomaly, similar to what is shown for 2014. However, we've been bearish for a while and there is way more going on in the crypto space these days. I'd guess it's more likely to see some bullish action across the boards than to keep floundering, especially because I suspect there's been a lot of price manipulation by whales during the past months to acquire some cheap crypto before the next inevitable explosion :-D
Yes, there is 2014 to consider, especially since most of the price action up to now for 2018 closely resembles that year as compared to others. That being said, in general, the 4th quarter is often a good time to be long crypto, with only a few outliers like in 2014.
That "outlier" in 2014 is the most important piece of data. The market has a way better chance of going that route because the 2017 pump/dump was similar to the 2013 pump/dump.
Obviously, I hope I'm wrong... but I feel like this post is extremely biased and full of wishful thinking. I've been guilty of the same move on multiple occasions... thought there was going to be another bull run in the summer.
It's not wishful thinking, it's just called using selective data to make an argument. ;)
In all seriousness though, even if you include the last 5 years, the entire chart, it still makes the 4th quarter overwhelmingly bullish on average. With 2014 being the only negative one.
Though like you said, that one might be the most applicable to the current environment.
However, when you combine that seasonal data with the fact that the crypto markets have now erased all of the euphoric price action starting in late 2017, it may also give credence to the possibility of bullish price action ahead.
We will know for sure in just over 3 months time.
Obviously I drew this a while back... but Bitcoin has amazingly stayed inside the parabola. There is still a chance it could complete it by the end of the year. If you look at the 2013/2014 pump/dump the parabola was broken pretty much in the month of September/October. I guess we're close to finding out.
Do or die time. If it breaks down, it looks like we won't see bullish price action till roughly June of 2019 if it were to follow the pattern of the 2014-2015 bear market.
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