Misplaced confidence and taking advantage of economic irresponsibility

My wife and I have been trying to get ahead of things a little and hopefully with her on the verge of getting a job soon, there is the opportunity that we will have a little more to invest into something. On of the things we are likely going to aim toward is having a significant deposit on a house, even though that is likely some time away.

What we need to be able to do is have a foundation of ownership across several areas that we can fallback on if we must. The goal is to be able to pay off our current apartment and then rent it out to help with future costs and if everything goes to hell (which I suspect it will), be able to have resources to capitalize on the crash in some way.

The crash is always inevitable and just a matter of time, and I believe that the next is going to be significantly worse than the last as most people haven't learned at all from the not too distant past. This has led to an even greater rate of debt creation and money pouring into investments that have nothing backing them.

One of the most ridiculous measures of economic activity for prediction purposes is "consumer confidence" and I have no idea why they advertise it in the news. Well, I have some idea as average consumers are generally quite poor at their finances which means when they are confident, they are not only going to buy more, they are more likely to go into debt for it.

The banks of course love confident consumers because they can not only earn on the interest charged, they can make profits on the purchases made as they have invested into the companies the consumers buy from. Win/win - for the banks and investors.

Confidence itself is quite an interesting factor to consider in investments because in general, those who know the least are the most confident. The Dunning-Kruger speaks of this phenomena where those who are actually highly knowledgeable are generally much less likely to commit - instead they will talk in maybes, while those who know little will talk in certainties.

As humans and seemingly more so with the internet, we are more likely to weigh those who speak with confidence higher and therefore get influenced more in our actions. but, it is also more likely that the people we are influenced by know the least about the topic they are confident in.

No wonder politics is an entertainment-based shit show as we are likely to choose those who "confidently proclaim" that they know what to do - how to save us. lols.

When people are confident about the future, they are more likely to invest less into it as they expect the outcome to be good so choose to enjoy more now. In Finland this has translated to many people over-extending themselves into debt models that with small changes upward in interest rates, will put massive pressure on their financial responsibilities. I suspect that after a year of downturn, the amount of houses on the market will skyrocket and the prices will be plummeting.

However, for my wife and I to be able to take advantage of this situation of economic irresponsibility, we ourselves will need to have the resources available and that means savings, diversified investments and of course, jobs of some description that not only pay off our needs, but add the ability to invest more.

Over the last few years we have gone from doing okay to being crushed and only now are starting to make the turn into the positive areas. We have a long way to go to be able to have the type of resources available to buy a house and unless lucky with my crypto holdings, it is going to take time and some kind of discomfort. We don't mind this as we have been uncomfortable for years already.

As my visiting friend instructed, what we need to do is work out what we have available for investment and then take a percentage approach to diversify it. No matter what we might earn, the percentage stays the same or increases and, we stick to it.

The "sticking to it" is likely where so many people fall short in investments as there is the tendency to say "I will make it up next month" when there is something of want for this month. However, often the make it up never happens and once the exception is made, the likelihood of making a habit of it increases.

This is even more likely when people feel confident about the future.

For me, I am not an overly confident person as in my life there has been a great deal of unexpected that has arisen in the negative. When it comes to crypto, I don't believe that it is going to make me wealthy enough that I don't have to worry about money, but there is definitely the upside potential that it will actually do so. However, to take advantage of booming crypto, one has to hold some on the way up.

Most sell.

They will make it up next month.

The economy is designed to crash, yet many are surprised when it happens.

Taraz
[ a Steem original ]