U.S Renigs on the Iran deal

The United States last afternoon refused to re certify the Iran deal and waive the sanctions. The U.S. will reimpose sanctions on Iran's economy.

The Ayatollah (supreme leader of Iran) stated that they will be prepping uranium enrichment, but will negotiate with other powers in the deal in an attempt to salvage the agreement. Many other world leaders and allies spoke in open disagreement and disappointment about the decision.

U.S. withdrawal from the agreement has been foreshadowed from sometime by Trump. He has called the deal a "disgrace, a bad deal, and embarrassment, one sided", among many other adjectives.

What was the Deal?

This was a deal forged in 2015 between many world powers to trade Iranian nuclear development for economic relief until 2025. It was between nations such as Britain, France, Russia, China, Germany, and other powers. The deal is not technically a treaty because it was not passed through congress. This created a controversy at the time, as it was a disagreement in the constitutional powers of the executive branch. The agreement was technically not legally binding, which is what allowed Trump to pull out of the agreement as his discretion.

Iran's economy was in poor shape before the deal. Bowing under the weight of economic sanctions imposed by major powers in retaliation to its' continued uranium enrichment, ballistic missile tests, and underground nuclear program. The Rial was weak, capital was continually fleeing the country, sanctions prevented loans and international investment. Iran was hurting. Iran was also enriching uranium that could be used in nuclear weapons. Iran claimed it was only enriching uranium for nuclear fuel (3-5%), but it was suspected and basically confirmed that Iran was highly enriching uranium (80%). Enrichment levels that are needed for nuclear weapons. The U.S actually executed a covert mission in which it developed a highly advanced virus that targeted Uranium enrichment facilities and caused the centrifuges spinning the uranium for to alter the speed, ruining the enrichment process. It set back the nuclear program by years.

Come the agreement, in which Iran would cease all nuclear ambitions and stop enriching uranium, while world powers agreed to lift sanctions. The U.S. released billions in Iranian money that was frozen in bank accounts and paid a longstanding debt plus interest to the Iranian government. During the 70's Iran purchased arms from the U.S, for which we never delivered and that was repaid plus interest. This is was is alluded to as the planeload of cash delivered by Obama.

The nuclear regulatory agency (UN branch), would be able to inspect Iranian facilities and report on Iranian compliance every three months. If Iran was not in compliance, it would have a short time to remedy, or face reimposing of sanctions. Inspectors could also inspect any military facility in the country after giving Iran a 30 day heads up.
As someone who works in nuclear medicine and has studied nuclear reactions extensively, it would be impossible to conduct mal intention nuclear activity and clean up traces in 30 days.....impossible

Interestingly, the economic relief and influx of cash has not been spent to bolster the economy and living conditions and instead has largely been squandered in corruption and government waste.

Why the U.S. pulled out

• Our allies and adversaries both advocated for the deal.
• Iran has always been in compliance with the deal, so that is not the reason.
• There is no plan in place of the deal
• To further dismantle Obama achievements.
• Iran can restart their nuclear program immediately. Trump chided that the deal ended in 2025, but that is 7 years past today.
• To create a better deal? Again, there has been no insight into how this is possible after. Iran has said this won't happen and why would they trust us.
• To punish Iran for promoting terrorism. Iran has been engaging in destabilizing actions and has continued to threaten western powers and Israel. They have also continued ballistic missile tests. (not part of the agreement).

The last two are the only two legitimate reasons, but they crack under any close examination. North Korea frequently makes propaganda videos of them blowing up the U.S., but yet we are willing to negotiate with them to remove sanctions in exchange for denuclearization. Also the likelihood of forging a new deal is virtually zero. In a speech about withdrawing from the deal, Trump said, "The people of Iran have known nothing, but this repressive regime and not known the freedom and pride they deserve". Yet, North Korea, which kills starves and tortures their own people and whos' humanitarian track record is much worse , is able to negotiate with us?

what this means

It is uncertain right now.
Iran still is willingly to negotiate with other nations, but the reimposing of sanctions by the U.S. will hamper that. All investment and business deals between the U.S. and Iran will be put in limbo or canceled. Iran's economy will be hurt at least in the short term as banking turmoil will commence. Iran may restart its nuclear program.

The fallout will be lasting

U.S. foreign policy will be hurt for decades to come. There is no reason for another adversary to fall into a agreement with the U.S. because they cannot be assured the U.S. will remain or uphold their end of the bargain. Other nuclear ambitious countries (North Korea), will look to U.S. action in this deal and there would be no incentive to compiling with denuclearization. Allies will be given pause and other nations will fill the leadership gap the U.S. has been creating.

It is unfortunate what has happened today and it will have far reaching and lasting consequences. This is a moment in history where diplomacy has lost.