RE: NL River Bluff: thoughts on my line? 5 Steem bounty
One question about the post, you say it's 4 handed and you have position on 3 of them. You are last to act, no?
Here goes my hand analysis.
Preflop: standard initial call of 35 in position 300+ big blinds deep especially with one caller already. Standard call of the 3-bet as well. If anything I would be happy to see the 3-bet and see the flop being last to act this deep with A5 of diamonds.
Flop: For me this is where this hand gets a big more difficult to advise without knowing your rep at the table, and without knowing how agro/ranges of the SB. I'm going to say a non pro would be hesitant to continuation bet air on the flop. I would try to take to this pot on the flop here. I would raise bigger than normal to around 900. The SB only has to fold around 50% of the time to make this profitable. Honestly in this spot with your description I raise to 900 60% of the time, float 20%, and fold 20%. So I don't hate your play at all, and would find myself in the same position often. I would say the absolute bottom of his range is 77, as I don't think AQ even continuation bets this flop into 3 other players. If he has spades especially with the Ace of spades, he doesn't take long to bet this flop, so lets take him off AQ AJ of spades.
Turn: Everyone knows this King smashes the SB's range of AK and KQ suited type hands. This hits all his non pair hands the SB could have possible 3-bet preflop, and then continuation bet the flop with. Does a set slow play the turn? I wouldn't slow play that flop if I had a set. You are representing a hand that doesn't get played like how you played it at this point, and we all know what happens trying to bluff when you are reping the unrepable (I don't think that is that a word).
River: If you want to bluff this river, shove imo it just looks much stronger and looks like you are trying to get value. My internet read on you in this hand would be to call you down with a pair as low as pocket 99.
Super fun to do a hand breakdown on Steemit. All my analysis is predacated on you being last to act and folded around to after the SB's continuation bet.
Just followed you. :--)
Thanks for this analysis.
I am puttingr this guy on a much tighter range.
I think villain never cbets unless he has a made hand. I think his range is ak+ qq+ maybe some jj+ or 10+ but i think he calls with most of that. Not sure if he balances this value part.
If he does i dont think he does not cbet into 3 players so i am putting him on a value range exclusively. The exception being a flush draw of course.
Now on thmy flop i feel i have enough ev to continue.
On the turn my hand is useless and i am strictly decising to turn my hand i to a bluff. I am representing a set exclusively.
I dont see the point of raising at any point but the river as i would not with a set. I have position with a set and i will never fold no matter what runout so whats the point of a raise ever. My goal is to get as big a pot as possible. So if i play the value this way my bluff has tonplay the same way.
Interested to see your reaponse to this.
I would also most of the time not continue with my hand, but i do have to balance and bluff some time.
The main part of this hand where we disagree is that I think pocket 88, 55, 22 (flopped sets) should each raise that flop if they are in your position. As played I would never guess you had a set by the way you repped it. If you did have the patience to slow play a set on flop and turn, a shove would be the more natural play too on the river. So I think as played you should have shoved river instead of leaving a bit behind.
His range after betting the turn is absolutely only AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 88, Ax ss, AK, and KQ.. I would call you down with that range minus the busted flush draw, which I think he rarely has on the river.
Very interesting to read your thoughts. I would never raise a set here. But certainly bet if he checked. I think he has to call down as well and players tend to not bluff this way.
So my question to you: How would construct your range here? Assuming you want to have bluffs and value?
oh btc-dialog is also knircky
Oh and I followed u back. Did u know there is a bounty on this?
Yes, but I wasn't quite sure the rules of the bounty. So I just jumped right into the hand history, and then gave my reaction. I just wanted to add value to your post, so I didn't enter as much because of the bounty. @birdbanter directed me to your post here because he knows I used to play for a living.
Thats cool. U will get a piece of it anyhow!