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RE: Can you help me with that Poker Hand ?

in #poker6 years ago

As Dan Harrington says, there's about 10% chance he's just doing something strange.

He doesn't know you have two pair. You probably could have caught a piece of the flop, but he might put you on any Ace, any Jack, or even a seven, or put you on a semibluff. So I think two pair is in his range to make this move in a cheap tournament.

I would estimate his legit range to play this way is JJ, 77, KJ, K7, J7, QT, or maybe two spades possibly with the Ks or Js. AA/KK seem unlikely, he'd probably raise preflop. A super-strong draw might try to take it down on the flop. He might defend with any ace, but probably not check-raise the turn.

Your odds are 47,451 : 24,480, about 1.6 : 1. Do you have 40% chance of being ahead here?

Losing: JJ, 3 possibilities, 77, 3 possibilities, QT, 16 possibilities
Winning: KJ, 9 possibilities, K7, 9 possibilities, J7, 9 possibilities, flush draw

So if you think he would pull this with two pair or just a semibluff, you should call and expect to lose a lot. If you have doubts, though, it's a fold.

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