STEEM : Has The Bleeding Stopped?
I gained a reputation for being a doomsayer for a while there when I was writing about the System Debt level and a bunch of other stuff that has been helping drive the STEEM price down. In my defence, I was just calling things how I saw them and what I saw wasn’t good. At the end of the day I don’t think I was wrong and while I might have upset a few die-hards along the way I don’t regret any of it. But what do I see now? Am I still a STEEM doomsayer or could we now finally be in the Recovery Phase that I first wrote about over a year ago?
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There has been a lot going on over the last year. A torrid Crypto Winter, HF20 disruption, the SMT delivery failure, an SBD Peg implosion, Steemit announcing massive lay-offs, massive stake powerdowns and serious talk about forking (and splitting) the entire ecosystem! If I’m being honest I didn’t see much of that coming and it’s been pretty tough to watch. It would have been even tougher for those poor STEEM HODLers who rode it all out. That said, I’ve seen a couple of Green Shoots recently and today we got an announcement from Steemit that they are Leaving “Survival Mode” … and Beta!
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We have seen a fair share of “Spin” and “Hype” come from Steemit over the last couple of years but there is enough to like about this announcement in particular. It reinforces new leadership and a new team structure that looks a bit leaner and more visible/accessible than we’ve been used to. By leaving Beta they are projecting a bit of confidence for the market too. On the back of a successful development of MIRA (to reduce operating costs) and the addition of advertising (new revenue) on the Steemit site it all suggests Steemit is finally getting its act together with a more sustainable business and operating model. But this is not just about Steemit…
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There are genuine attempts to organise additional decentralised development and governance to the STEEM platform, plus there are some genuine innovations happening with projects like Steem-Engine and other DApps that are adding value (and interest) to the platform. If you have a look at the stats and charts of @penguinpablo you can see that the activity levels on the platform have bottomed out over recent months and are even picking up. I particularly like the chart below which shows a decent increase in the Average Comments per Post.
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In short I think this chart indicates that most people who were going to leave the platform have already done so and a bottom has been found. We have a System Debt level which has dropped back below 8% and there are strong indications that the Crypto Winter may be over as Bitcoin shoots up to over $8,000 USD. The rest of the Alt-Coin market has started playing catch up and while STEEM still languishes at Rank #60, it IS catching a bid. As they say – A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats – so with System Debt now at a manageable level coming off a low base and a Crypto Spring Thaw in process we might be well placed for a solid recovery here on STEEM.
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I’m not saying that STEEM is suddenly going to outperform the broader Crypto Market and I’m not for a moment suggesting that everything is rosy. STEEM still has some endemic problems, but I think I’ve seen enough to start getting optimistic that we’ve seen the worst of things for now.
Hey, @buggedout.
I don't know if optimistic is the word. It's more of a "I've got money invested, so STEEM HAS to do something" so I'm holding on until it does. :)
I for one, however, appreciate not getting everything sugarcoated. I like those who have differing opinions of things, especially when they have knowledge of what they speak. I think a lot of good has come out of all the bad, and so I'm hoping that moving forward, we can all start creeping towards sustainability and growth.
Sounds a bit like Hold On for Dear Life.
I do agree that there have been some good things to come out of the downturn and there have been some lessons learnt. Not as many as I would have liked (the SBD peg mechanism is still unchanged) but I guess even slow progress is still progress....
Well, since the Economic Improvement Proposal is now front and center, I don't know if anything else matters at the moment, even though it's only supposed to be a proposal up for discussion. So, SBD peg mechanism, SMTs, communities—we'll be talking about the EIP for a while. :)
I don't appreciate people slamming everything with no solutions but i can appreaciate people who can tell it like it is. Especially if they have something constructive to add. There were a lot of issues a year ago but it's good to see that steemit inc has taken a better direction and even fixed a lot of them. There is a long way to go but the chain has a lot to offer and under the right guidance could get a lot of attention in the next wave.
Totally agree. Hopefully now we will have the right sort of guidance that the platform needs.
Your steem analysis posts are pretty much the only ones I read. Level headed and well written as usual. Time will tell if steem can recover or not, I guess.
Thanks @choogirl that is quite the endorsement.
I once told you that the chance of me re-investing in STEEM was approaching zero, but I never quite got there and that number is on the rise presently ;)
Ooh, well that is interesting. I'm not there yet.
Good to hear!!! 🥳
You know I never had the head for analysing these things but I do trust your judgement so it's really good to hear this from you.
I think you're right about the people who were going to leave have already left and I definitely have a lot more love and appreciation for those who have stayed on and stuck it out.
Thanks Arly. A while back I wrote a post about Crypto Winter being a good time for Community Building but I never posted it. I think you'd agree that it's when time is tough that you find out where the really valuable relationships are :)
I start to see some fear in the eyes of bag holders and this is what makes me optimistic :) When you are a critic, they hate you, they exclude you from their circles. This is why most people don´t dare to say a word.
To this point nothing has reversed, no trend you have mentioned has reversed. The price is falling, the number of users is falling. Now we are at Rank 63 :). I posted this yesterday to check if we are realy going up, while ETH, Bitcoin, XRP, EOS are indeed making netto regains ...and well:
The number of daily active users is declining. Now the few left, are posting twice a day (some fotos of their face or something), "I just call thinks as I see them" in the data while differentiating. Its good that you use data to back your claims one should elaborate on this. One hypothesis is that the topics have become more controversial. I both sides are heard maybe its really a good sign.
Totally agree. Being a critic of this platform ON this platform is not a very pleasant experience. There is a lot of group-think going on and a lot of what I call cheerleading also.
I'm not sure if the bleeding has stopped but I'm paying closer attention now you are making a little positive noise. The negative news-flow has been pretty constant but recently much more positive and is coinciding (strange that!) nicely with the wider market.
I do tend to make noise now and then don't I :)
There has been some positives throughout the winter but it's good to see some of the headwinds hopefully become tailwinds. Any chance of you rejoining the witness ranks? I'm very glad you're still here as I see you as not just one of the good guys, but one of the advocates for what I believe STEEM could (and should) be.
Now and then, usually the right ones too!
It's possible the Witness will return under some guise in the future but not yet. We are still around though, it would be a strange time to depart just as the thaw begin. Thanks 😊
Let me know if you do get it back up as I don't always stay on top of my feed.
There are still lots of issues, but seeing the growth and decentralization being taken up by stakeholders and the broader community makes me very hopeful. Lots of opportunities to build things and make things better and more decentralized.
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The opportunity is definitely there and I can see that people are building things. I do hope we become more decentralised and some of the big stake that's been dumped will be picked up by small fish, but I'm not sure if stake will ever be that decentralised here.
You're right, lots of things are fishy about how this all started as well with the pre mined stake. Then the leadership of steemit not really being too involved in posting on their own platform they built. I think def, there are still major concerns here. The tech is pretty neat, my hope is there is competitive cooperation between other platforms to create something more superior than anything else out there.
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Steem is looking good today at least.
I sure hope so man.
mostly @ned needs to slow down on his monthly selling spree..let steem recover a little bit..
That has been a big factor in my recent thinking. For a while there I thought Ned and Steemit were executing a full blown exit that would have not just suppressed the price for a long time (due to stake dumping) but also left the platform without a flagship development team.
I think that's one of the main reasons why I am happy to see the recent Steemit announcements and developments. If they're here to stay and now have a sustainable business then the stake selling might cease, or at least slow. That would take the lid off the market price of STEEM....
Hope he cash out and fucking leave. We are not going to miss him, when things get messy there you see the real faces behind the mask.
that would be nice as well...shit or get off the pot !!