Bitcoin Market Cycles: Hope Phase? (August 2019)
Just wanted to provide a little update on where I think Bitcoin is in terms of stages in the traditional market cycle cheat sheet.
Let me know what you think!
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Now we're seeing the adoption phase and that's great for our baby market today is more difficult see big gains but i tink we are at time to buy more btc and some altcoins based on interesting projects. Blesseings
Exactly! Adoption is the name of the game from here on out. Bitcoin phenomenon will never happen again but projects that focus on useful applications of blockchain and crypto are the future! Of course, this doesn't mean that BTC won't keep climbing this year :)
I see no reason to disagree on your reading of that chart. A friend of mine with whom I had a bit of a fallout last year over Bitcoin, crypto and blockchain technology told me when BTC went north of $10k in June that he thought it was a good time to get off the train. Me friend is a perma bear that sees no value in decentralization and therefore not in Bitcoin. People who think along the same lines and see the rally of spring 2019 as a fool's rally exist in sufficient numbers to prevent that rally from being but the beginning of the bull market.
Thanks for this. This chart really makes the "feelings" of the market seem more like tangibles that can be grasped by the logical side of the brain. People do seem to be growing more bullish with all the new developments and news going on in the space.
I think you were right previously about the anger phase. And now you're wrong, we're not in the hope stage. What happen is that we're in a mini bubble. Like a short cycle. Time to sell bitcoin.
Usually these cycles play out in a decade but I guess Bitcoin is different lol
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Obviously, because they're driven by the mining reward halving events.
Still, this time it’s way shorter than 4 years (if it goes up now). I guess it won’t.
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So you think the run from December 2018 to June 2019 was all we're going to get?
If history is any guide at all, that run didn't mark the beginning of a bull market but only the end of the bear market. We're in an accumulation phase now. There are some reasons as to why this should be the case. There are still many weak hands who bought during the late 2017 run up to $20,000. Being weak hands, those people will want to sell but are not willing to realize losses that they consider too large. These people are in the disbelief phase. When the mining reward halving leads to a diminished supply of new Bitcoin hodlers will cause the price to start going up again and above the previous all-time-high even if there is no increase in interest in Bitcoin among retail investors or institutions. At that stage, more people will be convinced that a new bull season has begun.
It's never shorter than four years. It's based on the mining reward halving events. That's because miners are forced to sell no matter what. Miners cannot afford to be speculators because they have massive power bills to cover.
The future of bitcoin is bright
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Hi Louis, I'm exploring possibilities for a second SteemWales meetup in case you are interested...
Not in Wales, but I live in London. Just in case you’ll add me to that UK list :)
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I will never still lose hope on Bitcoin and still believe it will rise in the future.
Bitcoin remains the strongest crypto. I still believe in bitcoin.