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RE: Bitcoin Market Cycles: Hope Phase? (August 2019)
Usually these cycles play out in a decade but I guess Bitcoin is different lol
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Usually these cycles play out in a decade but I guess Bitcoin is different lol
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Obviously, because they're driven by the mining reward halving events.
Still, this time it’s way shorter than 4 years (if it goes up now). I guess it won’t.
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So you think the run from December 2018 to June 2019 was all we're going to get?
If history is any guide at all, that run didn't mark the beginning of a bull market but only the end of the bear market. We're in an accumulation phase now. There are some reasons as to why this should be the case. There are still many weak hands who bought during the late 2017 run up to $20,000. Being weak hands, those people will want to sell but are not willing to realize losses that they consider too large. These people are in the disbelief phase. When the mining reward halving leads to a diminished supply of new Bitcoin hodlers will cause the price to start going up again and above the previous all-time-high even if there is no increase in interest in Bitcoin among retail investors or institutions. At that stage, more people will be convinced that a new bull season has begun.
It's never shorter than four years. It's based on the mining reward halving events. That's because miners are forced to sell no matter what. Miners cannot afford to be speculators because they have massive power bills to cover.