My Difficult Steem Investment Debate - Inflationary vs Deflationary - Dive Into The Deep End Or Keep Wading In The Kiddie Pool?
Here's another example of exactly how I feel inside about this, or when asked what I want on my pizza.
...Am I alone? Am I the only one? Help.
As an avid Steem user for 2+ years, I've always lacked a sense of urgency to invest in Steem. I can earn it!! Broken record. I chose to earn my first 5,000 SP, bid-bot free, and I've checked that box. User voting behavior and infighting within the community also heavily deterred me from buying Steem before to continue to only manually earn it.
With our hard fork out of the way, and the Steem/BTC ratio continuing to fizzle, it's becoming rather enticing to make a big move.
While I don't care about catching the perfect price (assuming curation/human activity continues to improve), my main roadblock is:
Deflationary scarcity.
Yes, one simple term keeps me from wanting to swap a potentially super scarce asset for an inflationary token that will continue to be watered down for years.
Reading my own words there makes me cringe. Why would I do that? It feels crazy to me.
But, then my emotions try to convince me otherwise... I could...
- Inspire and reward others.
- Thank loyal and proactive supporters.
- Fight global financial inequality with my stake.
- Incentivize people to exercise and recycle.
- Finally be seen as at least an equal by top stakeholders.
- Influence development.
- Skyrocket in paper wealth and passive income potential if Steem goes anywhere near a few bucks.
Alternatively, reading my own words above makes me think I'm crazy for NOT investing.
P.S. This is if and only if Steem sticks around and succeeds in the long run with good actors outweighing the bad.
It all feels like a huge risk versus a safe bet, but there are so many pros involved.
Yes, more risk = more reward, but does it when talking BTC? Forget ETH, all BTC here. The world is talking about Bitcoin. Friends and family, corporations, governments, countries, etc.. Those are all super promising signs that it's a keeper and to not F with giving it away for a while.
Also, real money doesn't seem to be flowing into the Steem ecosystem, and hasn't been for a prolonged period of time. Trust me, I've tracked this closely, and some volume probably isn't even real/from Steemit's regularly schedule selloffs (despite drastically reduced costs).
Would I be giving up a relatively safe bet for financial freedom for a far riskier/yet dynamic play? Yes. Could I live with this is BTC rises and Steem continues on its price/adoption descent for an extended period of time -- or fails to recover? Probably not.
I'm trying to look forward here, which is also why it feels difficult to part ways with tokens I've held safely offline for years.
As I continue to observe how things change after the hard fork, I'll try to overcome my fears to let go of my scarce assets for an inflationary one that's been working through lots of obstacles. It's a very hard position to be in.
I wanted to do a dive into the deep end, not some 10% diversification, but maybe that's what I need to do to get a decent slice of Steem to be dangerous during a rebound.
I'm sincerely trying. Sometimes it feels like a coin flip.
At times, I feel like I'd sleep better holding my ground and just peacefully accumulating Steem at a snail's pace over the next couple of years.
What to do... what to do? For now, I'll close my laptop to go mail 6 shipments and make some more money.
::Me bracing for Murphy's Law.::
Any advice or opinions? Talk to me.
Thank you,
@steemmatt
I think the most straightforward solution would be to simply leave your current holdings alone. Let them sit. But stop buying them. Let them ride.
However, for future fiat investment, go 100% all Steem.
That way, you can have your cake and eat it too.
Or if you exchange some BTC for Steem right now, then consider that a hole in the BTC bucket that needs to be filled. Make a plan to replace the BTC over time.
I went through a similar struggle not that long ago. I didn't want to sell off my BTC, EOS, ETH, or whatever...but I just wasn't excited about them like I was for Steem. They didn't have the same utility value or emotional spark that Steem gave me. So I stopped actively buying them. If I buy crypto, it's Steem.
As we get closer to Ethereum switching to Proof of Stake, I'm sure I'll be tempted to buy a bit more ETH. But for now, I'm pretty satisfied with my decision.
Ultimately, if I'm honest with myself, the decision is probably based less on sound investment strategy and more on whether I get to PLAY with my crypto. I want to have fun with it. I want to ride it like a new bike. Steem satisfies the kid in me. I get to DO stuff with it. I get to actively contribute to the success of the blockchain. Maybe not in a BIG way...but that's okay. Chances are, it will be significantly more influence than I'll ever get with Bitcoin.
You probably shouldn't turn your portfolio upside-down. But you definitely shouldn't shrug off your desire to get serious about an investment that could support your values and life goals. Most investments are strictly for financial gain. That makes sense. But it's always good to have at least one investment that's about more. Where it's about something you believe in and you're willing to fight for.
At that point, it becomes less about economic models and more about whether you're ready to turn a social experiment into a serious passion project.
This:
You wrote everything I wanted to write. Upvote because you saved me some time to think about the right words :-)
Damn dude. You just spoke some serious wisdom. I get everything you said. I think that the buying Steem approach would be most sensible, but it'd be pittance compared to what I wanted stake. That's the tradeoff I suppose. The hole would be too much to replace at the level on income I generate with my recycling business for a while, but it is a long game and Steem rewards could also chip away at that.
That really sums it up for me. The other core stuff is strictly financial. Steem is the exact opposite (but with that lottery ticket upside).
Thanks for the insight. I'll be mulling this over carefully.
👍
~Smartsteem Curation Team
Legendary voting behavior lately across the board. Thank you.
Meh, keep the Bitcoing if you want and buy Steem with fiat, it's crazy cheap right now: 200 dollars and you add almost 25% of your current holdings.
I don't particularly like Bitcoin, but I hold some just in case, because I can see it gaining popularity in mid term, though I'm not sure if it really has much utility in the future, because it is technically very limited. But I guess it could keep it's position as "digital gold", though I'm pretty sure utility tokens will have a bigger role when looking long (5+ years). Proof-of-work is very inefficient too, burns a fuck ton of electricity and when it gets harder to mine, it leads to further centralization of miners, because only big players will be able to do it with profit.
I just like Steem, and buying it now especially when it is sold for peanuts, because there's an emotional connection to it, and with the EIP now implemented, stake is more useful than ever to get more by curation and combating abuse more effectively. You get rewarded by doing good for the chain, this is why I like Steem so much, because I can take an active role with it. It is also setting itself up to be a powerful utility coin with the SMTs being implemented on it. Gonna be like Ethereum with ERC-20 tokens, except that Steem is ready to handle the load of micro-transactions.
One concept is that as Steem is evolving to be better, so will BTC. Eventually, mining will be no more... I think your suggestion to keep the BTC and use fiat is gaining ground with me. The concept I'm forming is a "trashtocash" account to essentially buy Steem with money I've gotten from recycling to further drive how profitable it can be when I compound the Steem and grow it. It'll also let me develop a community/reward others. It's just a seedling of an idea and Steem can be shifted over to a new account at any time, but the theme appeals to me. Part of me does want to do a big load up to not delay, but my gut says to chill out. Good points on the active role and utility coin. That's essentially why I keep hanging around here.
There is something beautiful in recycling money going to STEEM and using that SP to help others.
For some reason I feel that this would be the more spiritual and rewarding route versus buying a lot up front. However, I currently don't have access to buy Steem anymore on any exchange except Bitshares, so I'd have to find a trustworthy workaround since BTS probably has a decent spread/premium. Thanks for being in tune.
I genuinely feel that steem has just been unfortunate in the bear market. A lot of its value is/was based on the social media halo surrounding the coin. When the bull run was in full effect people flocked here in droves to earn free crypto. With the bear they have left/aren't coming resulting in a exacerbating push down on top of the general crypto nose dive.
I don't know about your crypto portfolio but mine is down across the board and Steem is a survivor compared to some. Several of my coins have been delisted and they were ones that most likely weren't scams. Just couldn't take the bear.
Ooft, I am rambling now but in essence what I am trying to say is that when the market turns, which it will, then the rewards you make will be the icing on the cake as well as seeing your investment rise. When coins are valued in mere cents their rise can be quite astronomical.
And it's not too be forgotten that the more mid sized individuals there are the better for all in the distribution of rewards.
So I would go for it. But... I completely understand the ideas behind not doing it too :0)
A social media halo is a nice way to put it. I never got too deep in the alts because I was initially not able to access exchanges where they were available (before I learned to dig deeper). ICOs were also very hard to participate in due to restrictions, probably for the best in most cases. Your point on coins in the cents is very valid. Lots of uneducated impulsive new buyers will seek a quantity discount when compared to buying a slice of a BTC. Steem will be one of those, partly if it stays on the top 100 of CMC for the novices to see easily. Ripple was a prime example of this a few years ago. Thanks for taking the time to share your ideas. I'm torn. I tend to opt for safer plays, but the utility and emotional value of Steem is very attractive if things continue to improve across the community.
I think that deep down you know... and it's a wait a bit and see type answer Matt.
Lol, not the usual 'blind optimism' of the steem cheerleader, but then I actually care and think about how steem can succeed.
I guess what I'm saying, and what my advice would be, is that it's only going to take 6 months maximum to see if the hardfork really changes things. I personally think that it's the positive changes we all know are needed which can turn steem around. So if you wait and see you can get in with a little less risk as things will be looking better before the price starts to rise cause BTC volume seems to be keeping all alts down.
I'm not sure what I'd do though if I had a large stack of BTC as steem is at a very low price. Also, it's very possible to buy big influence and higher earning potential by simply buying steem. Whereas it certainly isn't the case that consistently producing high quality content gets you either of these things on steem in my experience.
Ha ha, that's my 10 cents 🤣😉
Here's my 2 cents. Thanks for the advice. I'd personally kick myself to the curb if I messed with my long term holdings to reallocate heavily and it DIDN'T work out. However, it I didn't do anything substantial and Steem DID work out, I probably would be able to live with it since I don't think I'd be left empty-handed. I might need to settle on a little splash vs cannonball. The only thing I'd regret would be not being able to help others. I don't give a damn about rewarding myself unless I could use those gains to help others.
Yeah, I get where you're coming from but helping people on here comes in many forms. Just sharing creative drive can be an amazing benefit of steem in my experience. I was hugely helped in the beginning by various people in the creative writing community. Also, I had a steem friend from Venezuela when I first started here 2 years ago and over my first 8 months I know that my consistent vote on his posts helped him massively as that was when steem mooned. Even my shity vote of a few cents stacked with others who helped him and he could buy food for his family etc.
This type of stuff, and having helped with a more structured steem charity called @projectgiving, is what makes me believe in steem as a potential platform for real change in this world. Anyway, I've allways said if I win the lottery I'd drop a million in steem just to see what happened here if someone (me) with millions of SP actually did things based on true proof of brain and altruistic intentions.
Lol, need to buy a lottery ticket 🤣
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advice or opinions? yeah i hear shit is good for the garden :)
Steem is my hobby so i put in hobby amount of money. My brother bought a fishing boat for his hobby. When i want to go fishing, i use his boat. lol
Haha, best strategy!
Lego is my hobby 😛
Asher, if i vote early does the author lose out also? my understanding is that part goes back to the pool but who's part?
No the author is safe :) Author share is 50% fixed, no matter who votes when (unless there are beneficiaries). What goes back into the pool is a part of the curation rewards.
cool, i fked up and upvoted your graph post under 4 minutes and felt bad for you. lol
I still get the same rewards :)
And as i didn't vote the post myself, I wont earn any of the curation.
Also, the curators didn't really lose out due to the votes coming in under 5 mins:
Do you use mini-figures as bait? I bet you'd catch something eventually. Could get expensive though.